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Friday May 14, 2010 - 03:50:39 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 14-May-2010 - 0348 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The US Equities were in the Red yesterday. The Dow (10782.95) was down 1.05% and the Nasdaq (2394.36) was down 1.26%. The Dow may consolidate in the region of 10500-11000 in the coming days.

The Asians are down today. The Nikkei (10449.82) is down 1.61%, the Shanghai (2690.03) is down 0.76% and the Hang Seng (20242.58) is down 0.88%. While above 2650, the Shanghai may move up towards 2800 in the coming days. In India, the Sensex (17265.87) and the Nifty (5178.90) were up about 0.41% yesterday. The Sensex may move in the range of 16750-17600 in the coming days.

In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4635.60) is down 0.94% today.


COMMODITIES
Crude (73.97) continued its downmove breaking below the Support at 75-74.50 region as expected. The higher inventory levels and the Euro zone debt concerns are retaining the downside pressure. As mentioned earlier we might expect further downmove towards 72-70 in the coming days.

Gold (1237.50) is continuing to keep up its upside momentum for a further rise towards 1250-70. We might expect some profit taking at this 1250-70 region. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/goldcandle.shtml#candle

The Gold/Crude ratio has risen sharply since last week and there is some Resistance near current levels. Gold-Euro also has a Resistance at current levels at 986.17. Will we see some pull back in Gold? We will have to wait and watch. But since Crude is looking weak we see less chances of the Resistance in the Gold/Crude ration holding which suggests that Gold might be ranged for some time instead of seeing a sharp pull back.To see the Gold/Crude ratio graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/crudeandgold.shtml#ma

CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.2530) is looking quite ugly...it seems no one wants to be seen with one. It has weakened against all currencies. There does not seem to be any support in sight, with the market clearly defying the EU's might. A test of the Oct-08 low of 1.2331 is possible. Are we going to see some vintage co-ordinated intervention by central banks around the world? Problem with that strategy is, it tends to fail, at least in the short term. NOTE HOWEVER that there is an important Resistance on Gold-Euro at current levels of 986.17. SOME PULLBACK MIGHT BE POSSIBLE??

The Pound (1.4610) is not looking much better, having been clobbered yesterday. Some support might be seen at 1.4474, last week's low. Dollar-Yen (92.78) has come off from yesterday's high near 93.64, reflecting the continued "risk aversion" in the market. In fact, Dollar-Yen could become even more bearish. Bad for most markets.

Dollar-Swiss (1.1175) has continued to move up through yesterday and might gun for last week's high near 1.1246. The Aussie (0.8957) is just about holding on in the current evironmentm, but does not look bullish at all. Looks vulnerable to a fall.

In Asia, the Won (1131.80) and Sing Dollar (1.3819) have weakened again. Dollar-Rupee could rise a bit further today, after closing near 45.07 yesterday. A Week Close above 45.15 will be quite bullish.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was increased further by 1 bps to be set at 0.44%. The 2Y and 10Y yeilds were down 3 bps and 4 bps each to quote at 0.83% and 3.53% respectively.


DATA TODAY
12:30 GMT US Apr Retail Sales
...Expected 0.3%...Previous 1.9%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/usretail.shtml

13:15 GMT US Apr Industrial Production
...Expected 0.6%...Previous 0.1%

13:15 GMT US Apr Capacity Utilization
...Expected 73.8%...Previous 73.2%

DATA YESTERDAY
-------------
Apr Australia Labour Force
....Actual 33.7K...Previous 27.7K
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/aulab.shtml

UK Apr Trade Balance
...Actual $ -7.5 Bln...Previous $ -6.3 Bln

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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