Daily GVI Forex Forex View- USD and JPY Up vs. Europe
The Daily Forex View
GVI Forex Analysis
USD and JPY Up vs. Europe
10:00 GMT- May 14 (global-view.com) Today is seeing broad gains in the USD against the European big three currencies (EUR, CHF and GBP). It is more or less steady in its other headline relationship (JPY). As a result, the JPY is stronger against Europe as well. Weaker equity prices seem to giving the USD a lift. There is an air of pre-weekend flight to safety demand at the moment as fixed income prices have improved and gold is higher. Vague rumblings about the depth of commitment of the major two European players to the Euro experiment persist. This has causd German Chancellor Merkel to repeatedly warn about the importance of the common currency to the region. The fact that she even feels the need to comment has to be a concern. Keep in mind that the Euro scheme had been was a political, not an economic decision, and many economists had advised against it.
We have been keeping a closer eye on gold recently. It has been a favorite of risk trades but also is being used as a flight to safety refuge. Thus when the USD is weak it is in demand, but when the USD is being used as a flight to safety refuge it is going up as well.
The EURUSD is lower and the GBPUSD is down. EURGBP is steady. Traders have been keeping an eye on the short squeeze in European sovereign debt and on the threat of forex intervention in the EUR.
In the GBP, the U.K. new government is expected to be weak. A new election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.
The EURCHF is soft. SNB intervention tactics have changed, but flows from the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB.
The USDJPY pair is lower and the EURJPY cross is down. Japanese public finances are a worry. however JGB bonds are mostly owned by Japanese. The government wants a lower exchange rate and has pressed the BOJ to promote growth. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
The risk trade has been on and off in commodities and the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). The commodity currencies are weaker today. After the RBA recently raised its cash rate target, it also signaled a policy pause. Bank of Canada interest rates are expected to be hiked June 1. Monetary officials are unconcerned about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure on the central bank to tighten. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is up as it is still being used as as refuge from paper money. We favor AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally.
Far East equities closed lower. European bourses are down. U.S. equities are lower. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.50%, -4 bps. Flight to safety demand has eased. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: In North America , Canadian manufacturing sales are awaited. The U.S. will release Retail Sales, Industrial Production Capacity Utilization, University of Michigan Sentimentand Business Inventories.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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