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Friday May 14, 2010 - 10:14:24 GMT
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(EU) European Market Update: Continued Sovereign Risks pushes Euro to record lows not seen since March 2009

Friday, May 14, 2010 6:00:03 AM

 (EU) European Market Update: Continued Sovereign Risks pushes Euro to record lows not seen since March 2009


***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland March GDP Indicator: -0.3% V -0.7% Prior
- (FI) Finland April CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.7%e
- (IN) India April Wholesale Prices: 9.6% V 9.50%e
- (SP) Spain April CPI M/M: 1.1% V 1.1%e; Y/Y 1.5% V 1.5%e
- (SP) Spain April CPI Core M/M: 0.9% V 1.1%e; Y/Y: -0.1% V 0.1%e
- (SP) Spain April Final CPI-EU Harmonized M/M: 1.1% V 1.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.6%e
- (HU) Hungary March Final Industrial Output M/M: -0.4% V -0.4% Prior; Y/Y: 2.8% V 2.8% Prior
- (FI) Finland March Current Account: -€310M V €0.6BE
- (CZ) Czech Central Bank: Guides FY10 Fiscal Gap at 5.5% of GDP v 5.9% prior; FY11 5.9% v 6.5% prior
- (IT) Italy April Final CPI (Nic Incl Tobacco) M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (IT) Italy April Final CPI-EU Harmonized M/M: 0.9% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Q1 GDP Q/Q: 2.4% v 2.0%e; Y/Y: 8.2% v 8.3%e


- Equities: European equities opened the session to the downside and losses has worsened as the session has progressed. The declines have been correlated with the widening in the bond spreads for the EU perpheral countries. Today weakness is being driven by banking shares in Italy, Spain and France. As of 5:40 EST, the FTSE 100 is lower by 1.5%, DAX -1.2%, CAC -2.7%, FTSE MIB -3.4%, IBEX -4.2%.

- In Individual Stocks: EADS [EAD.FR]: Reports Q1 Net €103M above figures from a year ago of €170M, EBIT €83M below estimates of 120.7M and Rev €9.0B v €8.8Be ; confirmed 2010 outlook of EBIT at about €1B, of Airbus orders at 250-300 units; guided FY10 revenues to be roughly stable in 2010 as compared to year-end of €42.8B. Exec remained cautiously optimistic.|| Iberia [IBLA.SP] Reported Q1 Net loss €52M in line with estimates EBIT loss €75.5M slightly better than estimates of a loss €81Me, Rev €1.05B slightly above analysts estimates of €1.1Be.|| Wolseley [WOL.UK]: Provided interim update and reported Revenue £3.25B below year-ago figures of £3.5B. Guided FY10 trading profit to exceed the current analysts' consensus forecast of £374M.|| Severstal [CHMF.RU]: Reported Q1 Revenue of $3.1B below last quarter's number $3.39B and EBITDA figure at $492M below last's quarter figure of $620M.

- Speakers: Spain Finance Minister Salgado stated that market turbulence of the past two weeks has shifted the focus in Europe to "fiscal consolidation" from growth *** Poland's Finance Minister Rostowski noted that Euro adoption is not the highest priority; and targeted 2015 as appropriate time for Euro adoption . Poland budget was not at a risk from volatility of its currency.*** Following CPI release Spain Dep Fin Min Campa noted that negative core inflation was temporary and due to seasonal effects. Expected budget cut to affect GDP mostly in 2011***ECB's Constancio stated that bond sterilization will be done in the near future and that details will be given soon. Noted that Spain and Italy have a high savings rate compared with a falling savings rate in Greece and Portugal. Constancio expected Portugal's growth to be weak and called for accelerating reforms in the country. Said budget consolidation has to be tough and abrupt.

- Currencies/Fixed Income: European calendar was quiet on the data front with the only highlights from Spanish and Italian CPI data, which were both in line with expectations. Euro volatility and selling pressure increased over the open. EUR/JPY has declined and as of the time of writing is trading below ¥116. EUR/USD pulled back from $1.2560 and moved below $1.25 for the first since March 2009.EUR/CHF traded at 1.4000, CHF being helped by bearish sentiment on EUR. European sovereign concerns will continue to pressure the euro's upside. Caution is likely to persist over the weekend on USD, JPY and CHF as austerity measures lie ahead for European peripherals. Cable traded at lows of 1.4555 in earlier session, which are the softest levels in a week due to planned budget cuts and tax increases combined with BoE's dovish stance against inflation.

- Geopolitical: Portugal indicated further austerity measures Thursday including an increase of 1% on VAT to 21%, 5% pay cut for top government officials and 2.5% on large companies and bank profits. Portugal's Prime Minister Socrates forecasts the measures will trim the deficit to 7.3% of GDP this year, 4.6% next year versus 6.6% prior. He said measures to stay in affect until end of next year. Note Portugal government additional austerity measures approved yesterday. ***Spanish unions have continued to react unfavourably towards Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero's austerity measures. Spain's trade union General Union of Workers (UGT) announced civil strike on 2 June and demonstrations on 20 May; Reportedly the Workers' Commissions (CCOO) have also threatened to strike, targeted tax increases as an alternative. Spanish unions have reportedly rules out a general strike. Similarly, yesterday the Greece Public power union called for 48 hour strike on May 25. ***An article in the Wall Street Journal commented on Italy noting that the country's lack of growth makes its debt burden heavier further noting that it is the EU's most in debt country. *** In the UK: Newly appointed Foreign Secretary Hague to visit Washington today criticized Iran's behaviour over nuclear proliferation as unacceptable and that it was the priority of the newly formed coalition government to deal with Iran's nuclear program. He is to discuss various topics with Afghanistan likely to be the key issue. Note his trip immediately follows Afghan president Hamid Karzai's visit to the US ***According to a Times articles, economists estimate that VAT needs to be increased by 2.5% to 20% to support Lib Dems proposed £17B tax cut. This reflects the coalition deal in which the Tories agreed to raise income tax threshold for low income individuals. Other provisional budget measures from introductory cabinet meeting, new ministers to take 5% pay cut and pay freeze for rest of parliament reportedly to save £3M over five-year term of current parliament.

- In Papers: WSJ reported that SEC and state authorities launched investigations into municipal CDS trades made by banks. Investigation was concerned with whether banks used their own funds to short against the bonds sold to investors*** El Pais reported that France's President Sarkozy threatened to pull France out of country over the weekend if Germany does not help with Greek situation. According to Les Echos, which picked up El Pais report, Sarkozy stated that "there should be a general commitment to help Greece, or France will examine its situation in the euro". This and a dramatic gesture by the French president prompted Germany's Merkel to accept the aid for Greece.

***Looking ahead***
- 7:00 (IS) Israel April Consumer prices M/M: 0.7%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 3.2% prior
- 7:00 (BZ) Brazil May FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 0.8%e v 0.63% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland April CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.6% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Money Supply M3 M/M: 1.1%e v 0.9% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M: -4.0%e v 8.1% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Manufacturing Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 0.1% prior
- 8:30 (US) April Advance Retail Sales: 0.2%e v 1.9% prior; Less Autos: 0.4%e v 0.9% prior; Ex Autos & Gas: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior (Range of analysts estimates for Advance Retail Sales from -0.8% to +0.75; for Ex autos from -0.5% to 0.4%)
- 9:15 (US) April Industrial Production: 0.7%e v 0.1% prior; Capacity utilization: 73.8%e v 73.2% prior
- 9:55 (US) May Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 73.5e v 72.2 prior
- 10:00 (US) March Business Inventories: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- (GR) Greece to submit deficit cutting progress report to EU
- 13:40 Fed's Evans speaks in Illinois



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