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Daily FX Technial Report: AUD/USD - Broad range of 0.8578-0.9406

Daily FX Technial Report:  AUD/USD - Broad range of 0.8578-0.9406

Rate:                              0.8915
Daily Trend:                   Near term bearish
Daily Oscillators:            Neutral to mildly bearish
21-Day MA:                  0.9130
55-Day MA:                  0.9157
Daily RSI:                      38
Daily STC:                     40
Daily MACD:                Negative; Falling
Daily DMI: Negative;     Fairly strong
Bollinger Bands (U/L):    0.9437 / 0.8812
Resistance levels:            0.9078 / 0.9135 / 0.9406
Support levels:                0.8801 / 0.8578 / 0.8476

Aussie has retreated after the bounce from 0.8803 was capped this week at 0.9078 and as the early selloff below 0.9135 (this level should continue to serve as a resistance) confirms the decline from the April 12 high of 0.9382 has resumed (less likely to be a simple a-b-c zigzag), downside potential remains for another fall later to the strong supports at 0.8801/03. The aud/usd is now trading around the middle of the broader range of 0.8578-0.9406 (making the rise from 0.8578 to 0.9382 a strong B-wave) and only a sustained move below 0.8801/03 would indicate the A-B-C move from 0.9406 has resumed as a more complex downward correction and bring re-visit of the support at 0.8578 first.

On the upside, above 0.9135 would alleviate some of the downward pressure and see gains to 0.9220/30, however, above 0.9325 is needed to put the focus back on the pivotal resistance at 0.9382 and a break of the latter level would threaten a re-test of 0.9406, a break there would provide the final confirmation of a resumption of the uptrend from the 2008 low of 0.6008 and extend to the pseudo-psychological 0.9500 level and then the fibonacci projection target at 0.9668, however, the bearish divergence forming on the weekly macd suggest a stronger downward retracement may follow after the next rise.

The rise which began in late 2008 at 0.6008 formed a temporary top last year at 0.9406 (note the extended 5-wave upmove from 0.7702 which was completed at 0.9406) and the moderate correction from there has either ended at 0.8578 or under a more bearish scenario, the C-leg of this A-B-C move has the potential to reach 0.8242 (fibonacci expansion level) ahead of a daily chart support at 0.8156. Above 0.9406 would confirm the uptrend from 0.6008 low has resumed and see an eventual re-visit of the 2008 top at 0.9851.

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