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Friday May 14, 2010 - 18:12:20 GMT
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Fear of Euro Collapse Plunging Stocks

U.S. equity markets are plunging this morning following a drop in the Euro under 1.25. The move in the Euro began as a report that France’s president had threatened to pull his nation out of the Euro Zone. French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s comments reignited the fear of a collapse in the currency. Traders are divesting out of higher risk assets pressuring U.S. stocks.

The drop in the Euro spread fear to the global equity markets which began to weaken overnight. This set up the U.S. equity markets for a break following Thursday’s closing price reversal top.

Technically, the June E-mini S&P 500 is set up to retrace at least 50% of the week-long rally. The move from 1056.00 to 1174.75 creates a retracement target at 1115.50 to 1101.50.

Pressure is on the June E-mini NASDAQ this morning. Thursday’s closing price reversal top sets up a potential break to 1856.00 to 1126.25.

The bearish closing price reversal top on the daily E-mini June Dow charts sets up a potential retracement to 10376 to 10251.

June Treasury Bonds are soaring this morning in a flight to safety rally. Based on the short-term range of 124’16 to 119’26, traders should look for a minimum retracement into 122’05 to 122’23. With equity prices plunging and fear spreading across Europe, traders want the protection the Treasury markets offer.

The falling Euro and the strong Dollar has not been able to trigger a breakout rally in June Gold. This comes as a surprise, but it could be related to margin calls in the equity markets. For weeks, gold has become the safe haven currency. During the Greece financial crisis, money was flooding into gold, driving it to an all-time high. At this time, Gold is barely holding onto its gains which could be a reflection of margin calls hitting stock traders. Traders often begin liquidating speculative positions to meet margin calls in investments. This may be the case in gold this morning.

June Crude Oil is collapsing this morning on the Euro break. Bearish traders are becoming more confident that the problems in the Euro Zone are going to slow down demand for crude oil. Downside momentum suggests that 70.75 is the next target over the near-term. Earlier in the week, a report from the Energy Information Administration started the break with a report showing that inventories had risen more than expected.

The key to today’s markets will be the direction of the Euro. The comments from the France President may have started the break, but the situation had been fragile for a while. As of last night’s close, the Euro had effectively wiped out all of the $1 trillion financial aid offered by the European Union earlier in the week. Investors are losing confidence in the Euro and appear to be divesting out of all Euro-denominated investments.

Volatility is expected to continue throughout the day. There are stories circulating that the comments from the French President has been denied. This has not been confirmed, but if the stories are true, there may be a quick short-covering rally.

The main focus, however, will remain on the short-side of the Euro. The market is still being pushed lower by the hedge funds and large traders. They are unlikely to lighten up on the stranglehold they have on the market as the bearish story continues to unfold.


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