Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (14 May 2010)
The euro depreciated sharply vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar
today as the single currency tested bids
around the US$ 1.2360 level and was capped around the $1.2575 level. Dealers pushed the common currency lower on
rumours that French President Sarkozy threatened France would leave the euro if
Germany supported any additional bailout packages.French finance minister Lagarde later
characterized the rumours as ‚Äúrubbish‚ÄĚ but the pair fell to within twenty pips
of their lowest level since April 2009.Some euro bears continue to speculate the pair will move to parity and
many dealers are selling the euro on moves higher.Eurozone sovereign credit concerns remain at
very elevated levels and are negatively impacting many asset classes and
markets.There remains speculation that
Greece or other eurozone countries may default on debt obligations, perhaps
even this year despite the significant bailout packages that have been
appropriated.European Central Bank
member Weber reported unconventional measures have been a ‚Äúsuccess‚ÄĚ and said
there is ‚Äúno alternative‚ÄĚ to a credible fiscal consolidation.In
U.S. news, data released today saw April retail sales decline to +0.4% from
an upwardly-revised prior reading of +2.1% while the ex-autos component fell to
+0.4% from an upwardly-revised +1.2%.Also, April industrial production improved to +0.8% from the revised
reading of +0.2% and capacity utilization climbed to 73.7%.Other data saw March business inventories
print at +0.4% while mid-May University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved
to 73.3 from the prior reading of 72.2.Chicago
Fed President Evans said the Fed‚Äôs provision of swap lines with European
counterparties ‚Äúwill limit‚ÄĚ the contagion impact of European spillover effects ‚Äúgreatly.‚ÄĚOn the U.S. monetary policy front, Evans said
he is comfortable with his assessment that ‚Äúaccommodation continues to be
appropriate.‚ÄĚEvans expects the economy
to expand about 3.5% this year but sees the jobless rate remaining high ‚Äúfor a
number of years.‚ÄĚEuro bids are
cited around the US$ 1.2585 level.
The yen depreciated sharply vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested bids around the ¬•91.80 level and was capped around
the ¬•93.10 level. Data released in Japan
today saw April bankruptcies decline 13.2% y/y while April machine tool orders
were up 220.5% y/y.Also, the April
economy watchers survey was released overnight and the current index improved
to 49.8 from the prior reading of 47.4 while the outlook improved to 49.9 from
the prior reading of 47.0. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Yamaguchi this week said
the central bank has ‚Äúno need to alter the outlook in our semi-annual economic
report‚ÄĚ following recent market volatility.Finance minister Kan this week reported equity and currency markets will
‚Äústart to stabilize.‚ÄĚMinutes from last
month‚Äôs BoJ Policy Board meeting were released yesterday and policymakers
observed ‚Äúbalance sheet adjustments in the banking sector and the fiscal
deficit problem in some European countries might further slow the pace of
economic recovery‚ÄĚ in the region.The
Nikkei 225 stock index declined 1.49% to close at ¬•10,462.51.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¬•96.85
level.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency
tested bids around the ¬•113.50 level and was capped around the ¬•117.00 figure.The
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around
the ¬•133.15 level while the Swiss franc moved
lower vis-√†-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¬•81.00 figure. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8266 in the
over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8280. Data released in China overnight saw April
foreign direct investment up an actual 24.69% y/y, up from the prior reading of
12.08%.Yuan forwards registered their
largest weekly gain this year on speculation China will revalue its currency in
short order.The U.S. and China will
hold their second U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Beijing on
24-25 May.People‚Äôs Bank of China member
Li Daokui reported ‚Äúconditions for China‚Äôs interest rate adjustment are
basically mature now.‚ÄĚ
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.4495 level and was capped around the $1.4640 level.Bank of England Governor King was on the tape
as saying the U.S. faces some of the same fiscal dangers as Greece.Traders are increasing their positions that
would benefit if Bank of England keeps interest rates lower for a longer period
of time.Yields on two-year and 10-year
gilts fell to their lowest level this year.Traders continue to express doubts that the new coalition government will
be able to adequately reduce the U.K.‚Äôs mammoth fiscal deficit.The new government has suddenly found an ally
in Bank of England Governor King who has publicly supported their decision to
reduce spending by as much as ¬£6 billion.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4335 level.The
euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids
around the ¬£0.8500 figure and was capped around the ¬£0.8620 level.
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