Monday May 17, 2010 - 12:21:09 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 17-May-2010 - 1219 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.1351/55...Bullish
R: 1.1380 / 1.1420 / 1.1494
S: 1.1297 / 1.1260 / 1.12-1.1180
Dollar-Swiss is continuing to trade strong and is retaining the upside momentum. It is now trading well above the 200-Week-MA (currently at 1.1297) which further adds support to the overall bullish sentiment. The broader picture continues to remain bullish for further rise towards 1.15 in the coming sessions/days. Note the the 55-Month-MA is at 1.1493 and if it holds we might see a pull back towards 1.13-12. However, a strong break above 1.15 might increase the chances of further rise towards 1.17-18 or even higher in the coming days/weeks. Any sharp downmove is not looking likely now and we expect the 200-Week-MA (1.1297) to act as a Resistance-turned-Support level and hold in the US session today. However, a strong break below 1.13 might pull the pair down towards 1.12-1.1180. Any such dip towards 1.12-1.1180 can be considered as a good opportunity to buy.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy USD 10K at 1.12, SL 1.1110, TP Open
GBP-USD @ 1.4430/35...Immediate Resistance at 1.45
R: 1.45 / 1.4630 / 1.47
S: 1.4355 / 1.4280 / 1.42
Cable has bounced back sharply from the day's low of 1.4249. However, the overall picture continues to remain bearish. Resistance is seen at 1.45 which if holds might see a dip once again towards 1.42. On the other hand if the current upside momentum continues, a break above 1.45 might see the corrective rally continuing towards 1.4700-50 in the coming sessions/days. As mentioned earlier, the broader picture continues to remain bearish and we might see a pull back from 1.4700-50 region. Any such rally towards 1.4700-50 can be considered as a good opportunity to sell.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell GBP 10K at 1.4730, SL 1.4810, TP Open
AUD-USD @ 0.8793/97...Crucial Support at 0.87
R: 0.8815-45 / 0.8880-0.8905 / 0.8980
S: 0.87 / 0.8647 / 0.86
Aussie has risen from near its very crucial Support at 0.87 and is now trading just below 0.88. If it continues to trade higher we might see further rise towards 0.8950-0.90 in the coming sessions/days. Important to note is that the 200-DMA Support-turned-Resistance is currently at 0.8980 which is expected to hold. Also note that the pair has closed below the 200-DMA for two consecutive weeks which would continue to retain the downside pressure.
As mentioned above, 0.87 is a very crucial Support level to watch for on the downside and a strong break below it might pull it further down towards 0.85.
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