Tuesday May 18, 2010 - 03:49:23 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 18-May-2010 - 0346 GMT
The US Equities recovered their early losses of about 1.75% supported by higher Euro (up from the low of 1.2235) yesterday. The Dow (10625.83) was flat and the Nasdaq (2354.23) was up 0.31%. We conitnue to hold our view of a downmove on the Dow towards 10150-200 in the coming days / weeks.
The Asians are mixed today. The NIkkei (10281.40) is up 0.45%, the Shanghai (2532.50) is down 1.07% and the Hang Seng (19690.31) is down 0.13%. In India, the Sensex (16835.56) was down 0.94% and the Nifty (5059.90) was down 0.66% last week. The Sensex may fall towards 16500 in the next few days.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4490.00) is down 0.24%
Crude (70.69) is continuing to remain pressured on the downside and witnessed an intraday break below 70 yesterday (69.27 is the low recorded yesterday). With Support-turned-Resistance at 71-71.50 region, a strong break below 70 might pull it further down towards 67-65 in the coming days.
Gold (1225.70) is ranged between 1220-50 over the last few days. With Support at 1200, the broader picture continues to remain bullish for a rise towards 1270-1300 in the coming days/weeks.
The Euro (1.2335) failed to see a strong break above 1.24 and is continuing retain its downside pressure. Might test the Support at 1.2230-00 region today. Dollar-Yen (92.35) is ranged between 91.75-92.70. With lack of upside momentum we might expect it to test the 200-DMA (91.18) over today/tomorrow. The Euro-Yen (113.80) Cross is continuing to trade weak and might fall further to 112-111 today.
The Pound (1.4417) bounced back from yesterday's low of 1.4249, but failed to see a strong break above 1.45 which still retains the downside pressure. While below 1.45, we might see a dip once again to 1.43-42. Aussie (0.8713) is continuing to trade weak and is now trading near the crucial Support at 0.87, a break below which might see 0.8500 on the downside. Dollar-Swiss (1.1375) is continuing to trade strong and might test the 55-Month-MA Resistance at 1.1494.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1151 and the USD-SGD is trading near 1.3925. Dollar-Rupee has closed higher at 45.61/62 yesterday and is keeping up its overall bullish sentiment intact for further rise towards 45.80-46.
The 3M USD LIBOR was up 1 bps to be set at 0.46%.. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 2 bps each to quote at 0.77% and 3.46% respectively.
08:30 GMT Apr UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 3.5%...Previous 3.4%
09:00 GMT EU Apr CPI (YoY)
...Expected 0.9%...Previous 1.0%
09:00 GMT EU Trade Bal
...Expected 1.7 Bln...Previous 1.8 Bln
12:30 GMT US Apr Housing Starts
...Expected 0.660 Mln...Previous 0.630 Mln
12:30 GMT US Apr Core PPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.2%...Previous 0.1%
12:30 GMT US Apr Core PPI (YoY)
US Apr TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Actual $ 140.5 Bln...Previous $ 47.1 Bln
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