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Tuesday May 18, 2010 - 05:24:22 GMT
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ImperialFXonline: Technical Analysis Report - AUD/USDRe-test of major support at 0.8578Rate: 0.8728
Daily Trend: Near term bearish
Daily Oscillators: Approaching oversold region
The Australian dollar has penetrated the support at 0.8712 after a brief recovery to 0.9078 and the decline from the April 12 high of 0.9382 looks set to test the lower end of the broader range of 0.8578-0.9406 (making the rise from 0.8578 to 0.9382 a strong B-wave) as a more impulsive C-wave downmove and a breach of 0.8578 would provide the final confirmation that the A-B-C move from the 2009 top at 0.9406 has resumed as a more complex downward correction and extend losses to 0.8478 (previous resistance) and later towards the region of 0.8353-0.8411).On the upside, resistance is now building up at 0.9078 and above this level would revive a more consolidative outlook for the aussie with potential for stronger gains to 0.9135 and then 0.9220/30, however, above 0.9325 is needed to put the focus back on the pivotal resistance at 0.9382 and a break of the latter level would threaten a re-test of 0.9406, a break there would provide the final confirmation of a resumption of the uptrend from the 2008 low of 0.6008 and extend to the pseudo-psychological 0.9500 level and then the fibonacci projection target at 0.9668, however, the bearish divergence forming on the weekly macd suggest a stronger downward retracement may follow after the next rise.The rise which began in late 2008 at 0.6008 formed a temporary top last year at 0.9406 (note the extended 5-wave upmove from 0.7702 which was completed at 0.9406) and the moderate correction from there has either ended at 0.8578 or under a more bearish scenario, the C-leg of this A-B-C move has the potential to reach 0.8242 (fibonacci expansion level) ahead of a daily chart support at 0.8156. Above 0.9406 would confirm the uptrend from 0.6008 low has resumed and see an eventual re-visit of the 2008 top at 0.9851.
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