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Tuesday May 18, 2010 - 09:44:30 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 18/05/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis May 18,
Fundamental Analysis: GDP
Traders anticipate the publication of the Japanese Gross Domestic
Product. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator
for the economy's health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP shows the growth
rate of the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken
as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the JPY. Analysts predict a future reading of
The Euro broke the
resistance specified in yesterdayâ€™s report, and jumped for more than 100 pips,
without reaching the suggested target 1.2435 (yesterdayâ€™s high was 1.2412). This
climb has brought the Euro close to the top of the hourly channel falling from
May 10th high. The upper line in this channel has a great significance, and it
is the line which is guarding the downtrend. It goes without saying that
breaking this line will result in a change in direction for the short term. But,
we highly doubt that it can change the medium term dark outlook. This line is
currently running at 1.2399, and if broken, a dramatic rise will takeoff up to
the important 1.2511. If this one is also broken, the next target will be
1.2604. on the other hand, the support is obviously provided by the rising trend
line from yesterdayâ€™s low on intraday charts. This line is at 1.2336 currently,
and by breaking it the price will continue to trade within the channel. This
will lead to another drop, targeting a test of yesterdayâ€™s low 1.2223 first,
then a new 4-year low at 1.2113.
â€¢ 1.2336: the rising
trend line from this weekâ€™s low (so far).
â€¢ 1.2223: yesterdayâ€™s low.
1.2113: Apr 17th 2006 low.
â€¢ 1.2399: the top of the
falling channel on the hourly chart..
â€¢ 1.2511: May 10th low.
May 12th important low.
times of touching and holding above the support we specified in yesterdayâ€™s
report 91.79 (todayâ€™s high until the moment of preparing this report is 91.75),
the price is back above 92. Actually it is closing on the most important
resistance for the short term: 92.99. The importance of this levels comes from
the fact that it is Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 93.62. Incase the Dollar
can go above it, this pair will test the exciting resistance 93.49, and if this
one is also broken we will jump to 94.31. On the other hand, the support has
become far now, it is still at 91.79, which proved with no doubt that it is very
Important. As long as the price is above this level, the technical outlook will
be neutral to positive. But if it is broken, the price will probably drop to two
very important levels 90.75 & 90.09. The latter is the single most important
support at this stage.
â€¢ 91.79: important intraday
â€¢ 90.75: Fibonacci 50% support for the rise from Thursdayâ€™s low.
90.09: Fibonacci 61.8% support for the rise from Thursdayâ€™s
â€¢ 92.99: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
â€¢ 93.49: previous hourly resistance, very close to last Mondayâ€™s
â€¢ 94.31: previous hourly support.
Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forex Pros.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You
should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your
circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of
your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject
to change at any time.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
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