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Tuesday May 18, 2010 - 09:44:30 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 18/05/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis May 18, 2010


Fundamental Analysis: GDP (QoQ)

Traders anticipate the publication of the Japanese Gross Domestic Product. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy's health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the JPY. Analysts predict a future reading of 1.40%.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report, and jumped for more than 100 pips, without reaching the suggested target 1.2435 (yesterday’s high was 1.2412). This climb has brought the Euro close to the top of the hourly channel falling from May 10th high. The upper line in this channel has a great significance, and it is the line which is guarding the downtrend. It goes without saying that breaking this line will result in a change in direction for the short term. But, we highly doubt that it can change the medium term dark outlook. This line is currently running at 1.2399, and if broken, a dramatic rise will takeoff up to the important 1.2511. If this one is also broken, the next target will be 1.2604. on the other hand, the support is obviously provided by the rising trend line from yesterday’s low on intraday charts. This line is at 1.2336 currently, and by breaking it the price will continue to trade within the channel. This will lead to another drop, targeting a test of yesterday’s low 1.2223 first, then a new 4-year low at 1.2113.

Support:
• 1.2336: the rising trend line from this week’s low (so far).
• 1.2223: yesterday’s low.
• 1.2113: Apr 17th 2006 low.

Resistance:
• 1.2399: the top of the falling channel on the hourly chart..
• 1.2511: May 10th low.
• 1.2604: May 12th important low.

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USD/JPY

After 3 times of touching and holding above the support we specified in yesterday’s report 91.79 (today’s high until the moment of preparing this report is 91.75), the price is back above 92. Actually it is closing on the most important resistance for the short term: 92.99. The importance of this levels comes from the fact that it is Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 93.62. Incase the Dollar can go above it, this pair will test the exciting resistance 93.49, and if this one is also broken we will jump to 94.31. On the other hand, the support has become far now, it is still at 91.79, which proved with no doubt that it is very Important. As long as the price is above this level, the technical outlook will be neutral to positive. But if it is broken, the price will probably drop to two very important levels 90.75 & 90.09. The latter is the single most important support at this stage.

Support:
• 91.79: important intraday level.
• 90.75: Fibonacci 50% support for the rise from Thursday’s low.
• 90.09: Fibonacci 61.8% support for the rise from Thursday’s low.

Resistance:
• 92.99: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term..
• 93.49: previous hourly resistance, very close to last Monday’s top.
• 94.31: previous hourly support.

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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
Forex Pros.

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Disclaimer:

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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