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Tuesday May 18, 2010 - 13:23:35 GMT
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Swiss National Bank Promises Decisive Action

The USD CHF posted a daily closing price reversal top on Monday and confirmed the pattern overnight. This type of formation sets up a possible correction back to 1.1184 to 1.1123 over the next 2 to 3 days. The direction of the Euro will dictate the movement in the Dollar/Swiss.


The recent divestment out of the Euro has been putting strong appreciation pressure on the Swiss Franc. The Swiss National Bank fears that continuous selling pressure will hurt price stability and put the Swiss economy at risk. The main concern is damage to the export market will stall the economy. SNB President promised to act in a decisive manner which could mean another round of intervention should the Euro weaken substantially.


The GBP USD is holding inside of yesterday’s range. The tight overnight range indicates impending volatility. Earlier this morning, it was reported that U.K. inflation surged 3.7%. This report has had very little influence on the Sterling.


Bearish talk has been circulating that the previous government pushed through spending measures which will make the new government’s attempts to cut the U.K. deficit and balance the budget more difficult. Pressure is likely to remain on the British Pound as the new government is likely to propose severe budget cuts and tax increases which could put a strain on the economy. Investors are also concerned that the weakening economy may encourage the Bank of England to renew its bond buying program which would have a negative influence on the economy.


Like the Euro and Swiss Franc, the British Pound chart pattern suggests oversold conditions which could mean the start of a 2 to 3 day short-covering rally. Unless there is fresh news regarding the economy, traders should be careful about shorting the Pound at current levels.


Oversold conditions and the lack of fresh bearish news are helping to support the EUR USD overnight. Fundamentally, nothing has happened overnight to change the minds of traders. Investors are still concerned that the European Union is not doing enough to fix the financial problems in the Euro Zone. The lack of confidence in the European Union continues to remain the major reason behind the selling. Investors want clarity not just ideas from the EU. This would include the implementation of new austerity measures by the five countries at the center of the financial problems: Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.


Technically, the Euro confirmed the daily closing price reversal bottom at 1.2233. This should trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day rally or a move back to 1.2787 to 1.2918. A rally into this zone will not be a change in trend, but is likely to attract fresh selling pressure.


A late session turnaround in the U.S. equity markets on Monday and the follow-through rally overnight is helping to underpin the USD JPY. If sentiment shifts toward risky assets then look for selling pressure to build against the Japanese Yen.


The USD CAD rallied Monday morning but ran into resistance at a 50% price level at 1.0424. The minor reversal to the downside indicates that a 2 to 3 day break is likely. The first objective at 1.0273 was reached overnight. Downside momentum could trigger a further break to 1.0235. A change in investor sentiment should help the Canadian Dollar. Traders should watch crude oil and equity prices for direction. Greater demand for risky assets means greater demand for the Canadian Dollar.


Greater Demand for higher risk assets is helping to limit losses in the Australian Dollar. The NZD USD is trading better. The chart formation suggests that a retracement back to .7120 is possible over the near-term if U.S. equity markets can sustain a strong rally.


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