The USD CHF posted a daily closing price reversal top on
Monday and confirmed the pattern overnight. This type of formation sets up a
possible correction back to 1.1184 to 1.1123 over the next 2 to 3 days. The
direction of the Euro will dictate the movement in the Dollar/Swiss.
The recent divestment out of the Euro has been putting
strong appreciation pressure on the Swiss Franc. The Swiss National Bank fears
that continuous selling pressure will hurt price stability and put the Swiss
economy at risk. The main concern is damage to the export market will stall the
economy. SNB President promised to act in a decisive manner which could mean
another round of intervention should the Euro weaken substantially.
The GBP USD is holding inside of yesterdayâ€™s range. The
tight overnight range indicates impending volatility. Earlier this morning, it
was reported that U.K.
inflation surged 3.7%. This report has had very little influence on the Sterling.
Bearish talk has been circulating that the previous
government pushed through spending measures which will make the new
governmentâ€™s attempts to cut the U.K. deficit and balance the budget
more difficult. Pressure is likely to remain on the British Pound as the new
government is likely to propose severe budget cuts and tax increases which
could put a strain on the economy. Investors are also concerned that the
weakening economy may encourage the Bank of England to renew its bond buying
program which would have a negative influence on the economy.
Like the Euro and Swiss Franc, the British Pound chart
pattern suggests oversold conditions which could mean the start of a 2 to 3 day
short-covering rally. Unless there is fresh news regarding the economy, traders
should be careful about shorting the Pound at current levels.
Oversold conditions and the lack of fresh bearish news are
helping to support the EUR USD overnight. Fundamentally, nothing has happened
overnight to change the minds of traders. Investors are still concerned that
the European Union is not doing enough to fix the financial problems in the
Euro Zone. The lack of confidence in the European Union continues to remain the
major reason behind the selling. Investors want clarity not just ideas from the
EU. This would include the implementation of new austerity measures by the five
countries at the center of the financial problems: Portugal,
Italy, Ireland, Greece
Technically, the Euro confirmed the daily closing price
reversal bottom at 1.2233. This should trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day rally
or a move back to 1.2787 to 1.2918. A rally into this zone will not be a change
in trend, but is likely to attract fresh selling pressure.
A late session turnaround in the U.S. equity markets on Monday and
the follow-through rally overnight is helping to underpin the USD JPY. If
sentiment shifts toward risky assets then look for selling pressure to build
against the Japanese Yen.
The USD CAD rallied Monday morning but ran into resistance
at a 50% price level at 1.0424. The minor reversal to the downside indicates
that a 2 to 3 day break is likely. The first objective at 1.0273 was reached
overnight. Downside momentum could trigger a further break to 1.0235. A change
in investor sentiment should help the Canadian Dollar. Traders should watch
crude oil and equity prices for direction. Greater demand for risky assets
means greater demand for the Canadian Dollar.
Greater Demand for higher risk assets is helping to limit
losses in the Australian Dollar. The NZD USD is trading better. The chart
formation suggests that a retracement back to .7120 is possible over the
near-term if U.S.
equity markets can sustain a strong rally.
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