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Tuesday May 18, 2010 - 16:05:39 GMT
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USD/JPY

  • Resistance at 9.64 should continue to hold
  • Below 91.77 revives bearishness for further losses towards 90.85
Resistance levels: 93.09 / 93.64 / 94.98 / 95.37 / 95.32
Support levels: 91.77 / 90.85 / 90.00 / 88.14 / 87.36

The broad weakness in the yen (equity markets in Europe and the U.S. are generally positive) is likely to keep the usd/jpy firm above the near term support at 91.77 and a stronger retracement of the fall from 93.64 to the minor resistance at 93.09 may be seen, however, as long as 93.64 can hold, a mildly bearish outlook remains and there is potential for another fall later, a move back below 91.77 would target another fall towards the support at 90.85.

We will enter a speculative short position on the next rise and only above 93.64 would extend the b-wave type rise from 88.15 towards the 94.00 level.


USD/CHF
  • Only above 1.1147 extends medium-term uptrend towards confluence at 1.1500-1.1532
  • Downside risk for deeper retracement towards confluence at 1.1246-1.1247
Resistance levels: 1.1447 / 1.1532 / 1.1650 / 1.1742 / 1.1910
Support levels: 1.1246 / 1.1152 / 1.1036 / 1.0924 / 1.0899

The retreat from yesterday's Asian high at 1.1447 continues keep usd/chf under pressure price today due to the rebound in global equity markets and downside risk is seen for a deeper retracement towards the confluence at 1.1246-1.1247 (previous resistance and fibonacci retracement level), however, this move is still viewed as a moderate correction of the recent rise and reckon renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.1152-1.1186 support zone and yield another rise later.

The next decline will provide us with a buying opportunity. On the upside, above said resistance at 1.1447 would revive the broad bullish picture and extend medium-term uptrend towards the 1.1500 and 1.1532 but overbought daily oscillators should cap price well below 1.1650.


EUR/USD
  • Breach of 1.2414 prolongs consolidation above 1.2235
  • Upside is likely to be limited to 1.2563 (fibonacci retracement level)

Resistance levels: 1.2523 / 1.2605 / 1.2739 / 1.2803 / 1.3094
Support levels: 1.2235 / 1.2145 / 1.2010 / 1.1900 / 1.1704

The euro's intra-day breach of the minor resistance at 1.2414 has turned the near term outlook somewhat bullish as the single currency is likely to continue trading above the low made yesterday at 1.2235 and despite the retreat from 1.2443, a mildly bullish bias is seen with potential for a moderate correction of the recent decline that could see the eur/usd climb to as high as a confluence at 1.2563/76 (fibonacci retracement and resistance level), however, 1.2605 (previous support) should hold from here and lead to another fall later.

We will look to enter a speculative long position and only below the support at 1.2235 would extend the euro's medium-term downtrend to 1.2145.


GBP/USD

  • Recovery from 1.4252 likely to have ended at 1.4516
  • Below 1.4252 extends downtrend to the region of 1.4111-1.4180

Resistance levels: 1.4516 / 1.4640 / 1.4720 / 1.4918 / 1.5055
Support levels: 1.4363 / 1.4252 / 1.4180 / 1.4111 / 1.4000

The cable's intra-day retreat from 1.4516 suggests minor consolidation would be seen below there as the greenback is rebounding versus most currencies (except the yen) and further weakness towards a support at 1.4363 is seen but as a temporary low may have been formed yesterday at 1.4252, this level may hold on first testing and result in another corrective bounce taking place later today or tommorrow.

Above 1.4516 would lead to a stronger upward retracement of recent decline to 1.4560/70 ahead of 1.4600 but 1.4720 (previous support) is set to hold from here.

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