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Tuesday May 18, 2010 - 20:28:23 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)

Morning Report Wednesday 19 May 2010

News and views

Markets were rattled by news reports of market controls in the Eurozone. After the European session, it was reported that from tonight, Germany will ban naked short-selling of some German financial institution stocks and Eurozone government bonds, with related CDS' also captured by the restriction. The markets are awaiting further details, but the headlines so far have hurt the EUR and US equities. The S&P500 is down 0.8%, with banks 3.4% lower. Commodities have been less affected by the news, the CRB index up 0.7%, copper rebounding 2,7%, but oil -0.7%. US 10yr treasuries are 9bp lower in yield, the back-end leading a curve flattening of 5bp, a weaker PPI report also influential. Fed moderate Pianalto talked about the risk of dampened growth resulting from Europe's woes.

The US dollar index is stronger after the short selling news, although an earlier rebound in risk appetite, reflected in Chinese and European equity gains saw safe havens dollar and yen weaken. EUR initially rose to 1.2444 during the European morning, but the short-selling news knocked it down to 1.2256, close to the recent low of 1.2235. USD/JPY slipped overall to 92.20 on safe haven yen buying.

AUD ranged to 0.8790, but among the majors was the worst affected by the latest risk-averse news, and is currently at a fresh post-February low of 0.8665.

NZD fell from its evening high of 0.7040 to 0.6945. AUD/NZD fell from 1.2535 to 1.2465.

US housing starts jumped 5.8% in Apr, led by single family homes (multiples fell sharply), but housing permits fell 11.5%, more than eliminating permits' previous lead over starts - perhaps a sign that the end of the tax credit for homebuyers in April is already impacting on future construction activity.

US producer prices fell 0.1% in Apr, with gasoline, gas, food and truck prices declining, although core prices rose 0.2% with autos up 0.6%.

Japanese tertiary activity index fell 3.0% in March, up 1.6%yr. This was much weaker than the rate of decline expected by the market. A major factor in the fall was the weakness of wholesale activity, which presages a somewhat soft start to Q2. The scale of today's fall leaves us comfortably below market for Thursday's GDP update.

Euroland inflation was confirmed at 1.5% yr in April, unrevised from the flash estimate. The core rate softened from 1.0% yr in March to 0.8%, the lowest on record. Also the trade balance printed its 13th consecutive surplus of EUR600mn in March, with both imports and exports rising.

German ZEW analysts' survey fell from 53.0 to 45.8 in May, reversing most of April's jump. That was the steepest decline since the Lehmans collapse, and reflects concern the fiscal crisis in Europe will derail the nascent economic recovery. On that point, EU finance ministers said there would not be a "continent wide austerity drive", with only Greece, Portugal and Spain required to slash their deficits, so as not to derail the emerging recovery.

UK CPI jumped from 3.4% to 3.7% yr in April, highest since late 2008, with VAT, petrol prices and the weaker pound key drivers. The ongoing breach of the 3% target upper limit required BoE Governor King to write another open letter. He said that "the MPC expects that inflation will fall back. Nevertheless, inflation has been somewhat higher than expected over the past year and the Committee is conscious that the pace and extent of the prospective fall in inflation are highly uncertain. It will monitor developments closely."

Outlook

AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours:  AUD is breaking lower to a new 0.8600-0.8700 range. NZD should also trade in a lower range today of 0.690

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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