Wednesday May 19, 2010 - 03:38:18 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 19-May-2010 - 0336 GMT
The US Equities closed down on growing concerns over the EU yesterday. The Dow (10510.95) was down 1.08% and the Nasdaq (2317.26) was down 1.57%. We continue to hold our view of a down-move on the Dow towards 10150-200 in the coming days / weeks.
The Asians are mixed today. The Nikkei (10079.03, down 1.60%) may find some Support near 9750. The Shanghai (2571.32, down 0.90%) may fall further towards 2250 in the coming weeks. The Hang Seng (19585.65) is down 1.80%. In India, the Sensex (16875.76) was up 0.24% and the Nifty (5066.20) was up 0.12% yesterday. The Sensex may fall towards 16500 in the next few days.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4422.70, down 1.72%) may find some Support near 4250-300 in the coming weeks.
Crude (68.23) fell sharply and closed below 70 yesterday. The high inventories and the stronger dollar are retaining the downside pressure. As mentioned earlier we might see further downmove towards 65 in the coming days where some Support is seen. The US Crude inventory data is due today. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1213.40) has come off from yesterday's high of 1229.60 and is trading lower now. Support is seen at 1200-1180 region which is expected to hold as the broader picture continues to remain bullish. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
The dollar is continuing to retain its strength all over. The Euro (1.2204) fell sharply from the high of 1.2444 and is gearing up for further fall to 1.20 or even 1.18-17. The Pound (1.4280) failed to see a stong break above 1.45 yesterday thereby retaining the current downtrend. It might test 1.4150-00 today. Aussie (0.8563) broke below the Support at 0.87 and fell towards 0.85 as expected. A strong break below 0.85 might pull it further down to 0.83-0.8250.
Dollar-Yen (91.92) is continuing to trade below 93 and might test the 200-DMA (91.16) today. The Euro-Yen (112.12) Cross also fell sharply following the fall in the Euro. Dollar-Swiss is retaining its upside momentum and is now trading near the significant Resistance at the 55-Month-MA (1.1496). A strong break above 1.15 might see 1.17-18 on the upside.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1164 and USD-SGD is trading near 1.3972. Dollar-Rupee has closed at 45.59/60 yesterday and is continuing to remain bullish for a rise to 45.80-46.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.46%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 4 bps and 12 bps each to quote at 0.73% and 3.34% respectively.
08:30 GMT UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 hold...Previous 0-0-9 hold
12:30 GMT US Apr Core CPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.1%...Previous 0.0%
Apr UK CPI Y/Y
...Actual 3.7%...Previous 3.4%
EU Apr CPI (YoY)
...Actual 0.8%...Previous 1.0%
EU Trade Bal
...Actual 0.6 Bln...Previous 1.8 Bln
US Apr Housing Starts
...Actual 0.670 Mln...Previous 0.630 Mln
US Apr Core PPI (MoM)
...Actual 0.2%...Previous 0.1%
US Apr Core PPI (YoY)
...Actual 1.0%...Previous 0.9%
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