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Wednesday May 19, 2010 - 20:18:34 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Tumultuous Trading

 

The Daily Forex View

GVI Forex Analysis 


Tumultuous Trading 

20:00 GMT- May 19 (global-view.com) Wednesday has been a volatile session as the markets tried to figure out what Germany is up to. Repeated N.Y. morning spikes in the EURUSD triggered talk of possible silent G7 intervention, but we doubt that. However, the move clearly started in EURCHF which suggested that this was the SNB at work. The SNB has been unhappy with the weakness of the EUR vs.  the CHF. There is chatter that total Swiss intervention at the 1.40 line in recent sessions has totaled EUR20 bln. Traders are still trying to figure out the consequences of the sudden German ban announced late yesterday on short selling of naked Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and the stocks of the ten top major institutions. Politicians recently have been more focused on speculation recently than on underlying problems. A major concern is whether the trading bans will spread to other instruments and to other Eurozone nations. 

We reiterate that we have no doubt that the EU wants to see the common currency weaken vs. the USD. There is a lot of chatter about the 1.10 line. The key issue is getting there in orderly markets, which can be tricky. Keep in mind, what the economies on the periphery of the EU need most is weaker currencies and the markets are delivering that weakness. What is impossible to deliver for them under current circumstances is currency weakness against Germany.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 20:10
EUR 1.2393 181 JPY 113.43 67 JPY 131.95 -48
GBP 1.4416 75 GBP 85.97 81 CHF 165.86 139
CHF 1.1505 37 CHF 1.4258 253 CHF vs.    
JPY 91.53 -81       JPY 79.56 -96

The EURUSD is up strongly and the GBPUSD is as well The EURGBP is better. Traders have been keeping an eye on the short squeeze in European sovereign debt and on the threat of forex intervention in the EUR.

In the GBP,  the U.K. new government is weak. Already news surfaced that the outgoing Labour government left a much larger budget deficit than earlier estimated. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.

The EURCHF is up sharply. SNB intervention tactics have changed and today it took a strong stand. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. The SNB has set a EURCHF floor of 1.4000.

The USDJPY pair is lower and the EURJPY cross is up. Japanese public finances are a worry. however JGB bonds are mostly owned by Japanese. The government wants a lower exchange rate and has pressed the BOJ to promote growth. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         20:10
CAD 1.0439 68 AUD 0.8446 -199 Gold 1192 -28.10
CNY 6.8279 -4 NZD 0.6762 -175 WTI 71.01 1.51

The risk trade has been on and off in commodities and commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). The commodity currencies are down sharply as the risk trade is off. After the RBA recently raised its cash rate target, it also signaled a policy pause. Bank of Canada interest rates are expected to be hiked June 1. Monetary officials are unconcerned about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure on the central bank to tighten. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We had been favoring AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally, but some doubts are creeping in.

Far East equities closed lower. European bourses ended down. U.S. equities are weak. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.36%, -2 bps. Flight to safety demand is intact. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           20:10
NIK 10187 -56 DAX 5989 -167 DJIA 10463 -54
HSI 19579 -366 FTSE 5158 -149 S&P 1117 -4
SSEC 2588 -7 SMI 6374 0 NAS 2301 -17
ASX 4387 -84       TSE 11678 -98

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: No major data are expected from the Far East Thursday. In Europe, U.K. retail sales data are due. Swiss ZEW Investor Sentiment is due as well.  In North America, U.S. weekly jobless claims, the Philly Fed index and DOE natural gas inventories are slated. Canadian leading indicators are awaited as well.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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