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Wednesday May 19, 2010 - 21:02:21 GMT
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June E-mini S&P 500 Mounting Comeback Rally; Reversal Bottom Possible

The June E-mini S&P 500 is in a position to post a closing price reversal bottom after testing a major .618 level at 1101.50. After poking through this level to reach 1098.75, selling dried up to drive this market off the low. Most of today’s downside pressure is being attributed to the possibility of bank exposure because of the problems in the Euro Zone. Some traders also believe that the global recovery is going to stall because of a slow down in demand and credit problems in the Euro Zone.

The June E-mini NASDAQ is trying to mount a recovery after testing a major 50% price level at 1856.00. The June E-mini Dow is recovering slightly after testing its 50% price level at 10378.

June Treasury Bonds are trading higher in a flight to safety rally. The slow and steady gain is not reflecting a panic at this time. Regaining the retracement zone at 122’05 to 122’23 is encouraging to the bulls, but most likely precautionary buying rather than speculative buying.

June Gold plunged sharply lower as fear subsided a little following the strong short-covering rally in the Euro. Wednesday’s close was on the lower end of a retracement zone at $1203.00 to $1192.00. This indicates that downside momentum is still strong. Regaining $1203.00 indicates the start of another rally.

June Crude Oil made a closing price reversal bottom on Wednesday. A confirmation on Thursday will set up this market for a 2 to 3 day rally which could trigger a rally to the retracement zone at 77.53 to 79.80. The supply/demand picture still remains bleak. This market is likely to take its direction from the movement in the Euro.

The June Euro is trading higher at the mid-session after making a surprise reversal bottom earlier in the session. If conditions remain the same, then look for the Euro to complete a daily close price reversal which would set up the start of a possible 2 to 3 day rally to 1.2742.

The weakness this morning was triggered by yesterday’s news that Germany was banning naked short-selling of certain assets. Traders sold the Euro hard as they speculated that the action by Germany was a sign that there was trouble in the banking system.

After traders failed to push the Euro down to what many consider to be the next objective at 1.20, weak shorts quickly covered driving the market higher. Rumor also helped to fuel the reversal. Talk was circulating that the Swiss National Bank was behind the rapid turnaround. The thought was that the SNB grew tired of selling the Swiss Franc so it decided to buy the Euro instead. This rumor has not been substantiated. In addition, shorts may have panicked on the thought that perhaps the European Central Bank was going to begin a round of intervention on its own.

Lower equity prices are helping to boost the June Japanese Yen. Traders are selling higher risk assets and seeking shelter in the lower yielding Japanese Yen. Last week the Yen made a range of 1.0532 to 1.1375. This range creates a 50% price level at 1.0954. At this time the Yen feels comfortable at this balance point on the chart. It also seems to be taking on the characteristics of a pivot price. A close over this level indicates strength.

The June Canadian Dollar is trading lower at the mid-session but off its high. Lower demand for higher risk assets is helping to apply the downside pressure. Based on the range of .9293 to .9891, the retracement zone at .9592 to .9521 was the downside target. The low end of this range was penetrated earlier in the session on strong downside momentum, but a slow down in selling has since brought the market back above it. This market needs to close under the 50% level at .9592 in order to remain weak. A close under the .618 level at .9521 will put in it in a position to weaken further.

 

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