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Thursday May 20, 2010 - 00:11:20 GMT
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Risk On/Risk Off

Perhaps you remember Mr. Miaggi “wax on…wax off” well this is a bit different but the theme of late appears to be whether investors want risk on or off. It looks to me like oil is trying to carve out a bottom…yes this is a gutsy trade because we’re suggesting to catch a falling knife but being most of our exposure with clients is in August options we are OK being a few days early.

As option traders in energies know on down moves you can pay reasonably good premiums on calls. We expect the August contract to find its way back above $80 in the coming weeks. Assuming we are correct we should see a turn around in the distillates around the $2/gallon level. Natural gas was hit today almost 5%, we could see a probe back below $4. We will be looking to re-establish longs from lower levels for clients.

Continue to sell rallies in the indices and on a break of the 200 day MA we would expect selling to intensify. Those levels come in at 1094 in the S&P, 10145 in the Dow and 1805 in the NASDAQ. October sugar hit the 20 day MA but failed to close above that level. As we said yesterday on a trade above 16 cents we may lighten up on clients longs…stay tuned. OJ continues to inch higher but we continue to suggest lightening up on longs as we feel you could see a 10 cent set back at any moment. Lean hogs failed to follow thru to the downside closing 1.62% higher today. Clients remain short looking for a trade closer to 80.50 in August. We could see a bounce in the short run; if so we may fade this rally with futures…stay tuned.

Gold traded below $1200 as forecasted briefly breaching the trend line that has held since the March lows. Clients took off their June gold strangle from last week at a 22% net profit. They did leave money on the table but with one week till expiration a profit is a profit. We said we were looking to start scaling back into longs with clients when silver traded below $18/ounce which happened today.

Clients were advised to buy September $1.50 call spreads today. This is how we see it: a trend line comes in at $18, 17.82 is a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 17.25 is a 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 200 day MA comes in at 17.14. Obviously the lower long entry the better but clients started buying today. The real standout in metals today was a 9.3% descent in palladium today!

Clients rarely trade palladium but we do follow pricing for guidance. Continue to buy dips in corn via September calls and December futures. Traders long December should have sell stops in July for protection.

Though we just put the Yen longs on we advised clients to exit at a scratch being we did want to have too many correlated trades on. If you are in this trade and not silver or the S&P we still like the trade but most of our clients have other positions that are too correlated. The Euro was higher by 1.50% as of this post…the squeeze is on. The dollar COULD be setting an interim top; this will be critical to follow in the coming sessions.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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John M. Bland, MBA
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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