Perhaps you remember Mr. Miaggi â€śwax onâ€¦wax offâ€ť well this is a bit
different but the theme of late appears to be whether investors want risk on or
off. It looks to me like oil is trying to carve out a bottomâ€¦yes this is a
gutsy trade because weâ€™re suggesting to catch a falling knife but being most of
our exposure with clients is in August options we are OK being a few days
As option traders in energies know on down moves you can pay reasonably good
premiums on calls. We expect the August contract to find its way back above $80
in the coming weeks. Assuming we are correct we should see a turn around in the
distillates around the $2/gallon level. Natural gas was hit today almost 5%, we
could see a probe back below $4. We will be looking to re-establish longs from
lower levels for clients.
Continue to sell rallies in the indices and on a break of the 200 day MA we
would expect selling to intensify. Those levels come in at 1094 in the S&P,
10145 in the Dow and 1805 in the NASDAQ. October sugar hit the 20 day MA but
failed to close above that level. As we said yesterday on a trade above 16
cents we may lighten up on clients longsâ€¦stay tuned. OJ continues to inch
higher but we continue to suggest lightening up on longs as we feel you could see
a 10 cent set back at any moment. Lean hogs failed to follow thru to the
downside closing 1.62% higher today. Clients remain short looking for a trade
closer to 80.50 in August. We could see a bounce in the short run; if so we may
fade this rally with futuresâ€¦stay tuned.
Gold traded below $1200 as forecasted briefly breaching the trend line that
has held since the March lows. Clients took off their June gold strangle from
last week at a 22% net profit. They did leave money on the table but with one
week till expiration a profit is a profit. We said we were looking to start
scaling back into longs with clients when silver traded below $18/ounce which
Clients were advised to buy September $1.50 call spreads today. This is how
we see it: a trend line comes in at $18, 17.82 is a 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement, 17.25 is a 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 200 day MA comes in
at 17.14. Obviously the lower long entry the better but clients started buying
today. The real standout in metals today was a 9.3% descent in palladium today!
Clients rarely trade palladium but we do follow pricing for guidance.
Continue to buy dips in corn via September calls and December futures. Traders
long December should have sell stops in July for protection.
Though we just put the Yen longs on we advised clients to exit at a scratch
being we did want to have too many correlated trades on. If you are in this
trade and not silver or the S&P we still like the trade but most of our
clients have other positions that are too correlated. The Euro was higher by
1.50% as of this postâ€¦the squeeze is on. The dollar COULD be setting an interim
top; this will be critical to follow in the coming sessions.
Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options
can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
Forex Trading News
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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