Thursday May 20, 2010 - 03:42:27 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 20-May-2010 - 0340 GMT
The US Equities closed down yesterday. The Dow (10444.37) was down 0.63% and the Nasdaq (2298.37) was down 0.82%. We conitnue to hold our view of a downmove on the Dow towards 10150-200 in the coming days.
Some Greenery in Asia today. The Nikkei (10113.50, down 0.72%) may find some Support near 9750 and the Shanghai (2589.20, flat) may fall further towards 2250 in the coming weeks. The Hang Seng (19684.55) is up 0.54%. In India, the Sensex (16408.49) was down 2.77% and the Nifty (4919.65) was down 2.89% yesterday. The Indian Equities fell following their global counterparts after Germany imposed a ban on short-selling government bonds. The Sensex looks bearish and may fall further towards the Support region of 16100-15900 in the coming days.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4403.80, down 0.24%) may find some Support near 4250-300 in the coming weeks.
Crude (70.12) has bounced back from yesterday's low of 67.90 as the dollar has come off slightly from its stronger levels. However, with Support-turned-Resistances at 71.70-72 region and at 75, Crude is expected to remain pressured on the downside. This week's close will have to be watched carefully.
Gold (1197.10) fell sharply from yesterday's high of 1228.20 breaking and closed below 1200. As mentioned earlier Support is seen at 1180. A break below it might pull it further down towards 1150-30 which is the next significant Support region seen on the downside. The broader picture continues to remain bullish and we expect the Support at 1150-30 region to hold incase a break below 1180 is seen. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
Some corrective rally witnessed yesterday within the overall downtrend in the currencies. The Euro (1.2350), Cable (1.4400) and the Euro-Yen (113.34) Cross have bounced back from their respective lows of 1.2144, 1.4237 and 110.85. They have Resistance at 1.2430-50, 1.4500-20 and 114.50-80 respectively which are expected to hold and keep the overall downtrend intact.
Dollar-Yen (91.78) tested the 200-DMA (91.14) as expected and has bounced back from the low of 90.94. Aussie (0.8453) is continuing to trade strong on the downside and it is now trading below 0.85. While below 0.85, good chances of further fall to 0.83. Dollar-Swiss (1.1530) is keeping up its bullish sentiment intact for a further rise to 1.17-18.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1172 and the USD-SGD is trading near 1.3976. Dollar-Rupee has closed higher at 46.36/37.
The 3M USD LIBOR was up 2 bps to be set at 0.48%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 4 bps and 3 bps each to quote at 0.77% and 3.37% respectively.
JP GDP Q4'10 (1st Pre)
...Actual 1.2%...Previous 1.0%
14:00 GMT Apr US Philifed Index
...Expected 21.9...Previous 20.2
UK BOE Minutes
...Actual 0-0-9 hold...Previous 0-0-9 hold
US Apr Core CPI (MoM)
...Actual 0.0%...Previous 0.0%
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