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Thursday May 20, 2010 - 06:23:02 GMT
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ImperialFXonline: Technical Analysis Report - AUD/USDResumption of decline from 0.9406 high
www.imperialFXonline.comAussie's selloff below the weekly chart support at 0.8578 has provided the final confirmation that the A-B-C move from the 2009 top at 0.9406 has resumed and a less-bearish count would make the A-wave and B-waves of this move ending at 0.8578 and 0.9382 respectively, hence the recent C-leg decline (which has extended to as far as 0.8358, close to a fibonacci retracement level at 0.8356) has the potential to head down to the confluence of a fibonacci retracement and expansion at 0.8108/11, with 0.8000 likely to hold on first testing.
On the upside, resistance is now found at 0.8578 and a sustained move back above this level would call for a temporary low formation and risk rebound to 0.8650 ahead of 0.8712, however, the pivot to focus on should be 0.9078, which will act as the main line of defence ahead of the resistance zone at 0.9382-0.9406.
The rise which began in late 2008 at 0.6008 has formed at least temporary top last year at 0.9406 with the extended wave 3 upmove from 0.7702 being completed there and a moderate correction in wave 4 would target further losses towards 0.8000 but the support at 0.7702 is expected to contain the A$'s weakness. A more bearish scenario would have the entire rally from 0.6008 terminating at 0.7406 (with a fifth wave failure at 0.9382) and this would call for an eventual resumption of the decline from the 2008 top of 0.9851 (a breach of 0.7269 would trigger this alternate count). A bullish outlook would return once the aussie rises above 0.9406 as a close above there would extend the uptrend from 0.6008 low to 0.9851 via 0.9590/00.Join Us and Strategize Your
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