European Market Update: Risk aversion finds some relief in session aided by Dubai World restructuring and Spanish 10-year auction results
Thursday, May 20, 2010
European Market Update: Risk aversion finds some relief in session aided by Dubai World restructuring and Spanish 10-year auction results
***Economic Data*** - (GE) Germany April Producer Prices M/M: 0.8% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.4%e - (PH) Philippines Apr Budget (PHP): 2.6B v -63.9B prior - (JP) Japan April Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -3.7% v -4.9% prior - (AS) Austria March Producer Price Index M/M: 0.8% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v -0.7% prior - (DE) Denmark May Consumer Confidence Indicator: 3.0 v 4.0e - (TT) Taiwan Q1 GDP Y/Y: 13.3% v 11.0%e - (TT) Taiwan April Export Orders Y/Y: 35.2% v 36.10%e - (IT) Italy March Industrial Orders M/M: 1.0% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 13.1% v 7.2%e - (IT) Italy March Industrial Sales M/M: 1.5% v -2.6% prior; Y/Y: 6.3% v 4.2% prior - (NO) Norway Q1 GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v 0.2%e; Mainland GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.4%e - (TT) Taiwan Q1 Current Account Balance: $9.9B v $10.3Be - (UK) April Retail Sales M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e (third monthly increase); Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e; Retail Sales ex Auto M/M: 0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.2%e - (HK) Hong Kong Apr CPI Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.4%e - (SZ) Credit Suisse ZEW survey: 40.5 v 53.4 prior - (IC) Iceland April Wage Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.0% v 3.6% prior - (IT) Italy March Current Account: -â‚¬5.3B v -â‚¬5.0B
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets opened the session higher, supported by financials and more details on Dubai World's proposed agreement with its top creditors, some of whom include large UK banks. The equity gains have also coincided with the tightening in the sovereign debt spreads. Despite the gains in Europe Greece's ASE index is trading down on the session. As of , equities have moved off of there best levels following cautious comments out of Germany and Spain's government bond auction. The FTSE 100 is higher by 0.66%, DAX +0.10%, IBEX +1.5%, FTSE MIB +1.3%, Athens Composite -1.7%
- In Individual Stocks: Air Berlin [AB1.GE]: Company remained optimistic that the FY10 EBIT would exceed year-ago figures which implies better than â‚¬28.5M. Expected sales growth of more than 10% which implies â‚¬3.63B due to TUIFly business. || Oesterreiche Post [POST.AS]: Reported Net profit of â‚¬33.4M above the estimates of â‚¬30M. Revenues came in at â‚¬585.6M below analysts estimates of â‚¬588M. Company reaffirmed decline in FY10 revenues of -1-2% which implies â‚¬2.33-2.44B but reaffirmed stable EBIT growth at 10-12% which implies â‚¬165-168M || Mothercare [MTC.UK]: Reported FY Net figures at Â£23.6M slightly above analysts' estimates of Â£23M. Revenues were Â£766.4M below estimates of Â£796M. Company remained cautious for the remainder of the fiscal year. || Shanks [SKS.UK]: Reported FY10 Net and Revenues figures of â‚¬37.6M and Â£684M respectively, both above analysts' estimates of Â£22M and Â£674M. Company expected strong growth in the medium term but expected conditions to remain challenging in the near term for its construction related businesses || SAB Miller [SAB.UK]: Reported FY Net of $1.9B, Op profit of $3.1B and Revenues of $18B, all below analysts' estimates of respectively $2.4B, $3.4B and $19B. Company did not anticipate "broad recovery" in consumer spending before the second half of the current financial year. Expected conditions to remain difficult for the year and raw material input costs for the year to be level with, or marginally down on, the prior year. || National Grid [NG.UK] Reported FY Revenues of Â£14B which were lower than year-ago figures of Â£15.7B. Company expected financing costs in 2010/11 to continue to benefit from current low interest rates, although the pick up in inflation would impact index linked debt. Separately the company also announced a 2:5 rights issue to raise Â£3.2B. || British Petroleum [BP.UK] Provided an updated on the subsea efforts in the Gulf of Mexico, saying that it was collecting 3,000 bpd of oil. Has recoverd 187K of oily liquid as of now.
- Speakers: German Chancellor Merkel reiterated that the decision on Euro rescue plan was "existential". She added that the Euro zone was not breaking apart and was ready to take necessary political action to defend Euro. She again stressed that the Maastricht Stability Pact needed to be strengthened. On the topic of exit strategies she noted concern about the extent of international coordination.***ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo commented in an Italian press interview that the ECB's exit strategy remained the same though timing was slower. He noted that the financial market volatility not not desirable but that the ECB and Greece rescue plan had calmed markets. He reiterated the view that ECB interest rates were at an appropriate level. Too early to say whether German move would influence participation by the banks in govt auctions and ECB refinancing *** IMF Chief Strauss-Khan commented that it did not exclude more Greek-like events and added that the crisis showed that Europe needed a joint economic policy. He stressed that European growth was far too low and that Euro region countries need to speed up growth. Lesson from European crisis is euro needs a joint economic policy *** German Finance Ministry April Report stated that the German economic recovery was broadening on its exports. April Federal tax receipts were up 8.5% y/y but noted that private Consumption remained sluggish *** France Fin Min Lagarde commented that must defend the euro currency but added that the euro was absolutely 'not in danger ' and remained a credible currency. She confirmed France would not follow Germany's decision on ban on naked short-selling and stressed that the ban was debatable ** EU's Almunia noted that it was not possible to imagine EU budgets without any deficits *** France Presidential Office commented that dealing with public debt was a national priority and that economic growth was not sufficient to turn around public finances *** BOE's Posen commented that there was global pressure on EU-16 members to curb Greece fiscal and debt crisis. He added that the EU response to Greece situation prevented a Lehman like outcome. However, he commented that the Euro had lost an opportunity to be 'real' global currency*** UK PM Cameron provided full terms of the Conservatives' coalition agreement and emphasized "common ground" with Liberal Democrats. He noted that the country faced big challenges and highlighted its deficit concern. the coalition program to deliver extensive and detailed reform ***Spanish Union: Still has not seen details of government's austerity measures
- Currencies/Fixed income: The session began with a continued uncertainty surrounding the credit risk contagion out of Europe and the implications of potential policymaker decisions to resolve market volatility. There was a plethora of official comments about the Euro price action. EU's Juncker noted during the Asian session that the pace of the Euro currency decline was unwarranted, but joint FX intervention was not needed. EU's Almunia stated that he too opposed market Intervention to prop up the Euro. Dealer continued to note that the overall environment remained ripe for rumor activity. The EUR/USD surged above the 1.24 handle in the moments leading up to the European equity open aided by the German producer price data to square some short sellers. Further stability was provided via the Spanish debt auction in which the Spain Debt Agency sold â‚¬3.52B in 10-year Bonos just above the expected range. The bid-to cover came in at 2.03x versus a 1.55x prior. The results came with a price with the average yield of 4.074% the highest in 13 months. Overall the sentiment for EUR/USD remained bearish given the backdrop of heightened risk aversion should and continued to encourage selling euro on strength above the historical 1.24 pivot point in the pair with the theme intact ahead of Friday's finance minister's meeting. The sentiment was re-enforced after a French Presidential aide commented that economic growth was not sufficient to turn around public finances.
- Geopolitical: South Korea formally accused North Korean of naval vessel back in March. According to a multinational panel report, a North Korea torpedo was the only plausible explanation for sinking of South Korean ship. North Korea said the report was a fabrication and that it would dispatch investigators to South over ship sinking. ***Greek union held a general strike today continuing protests against the government's austerity measures
***Notes/Observations: - Dubai World reaches $23.5B debt deal with creditors - Spanish 10-year bond auction provides some relief in sentiment - Japan GDP growth of 1.4% fastest in three quarters but below market expectations. - China: concerned about US debt levels. Hopes exchange rate issues will be quiet discussions. EU debt crisis and currency policies to be discussed with US next week. - EU's Juncker: More concerned about rapid euro currency decline than level. No need for immediate joint intervention. - New Zealand cuts income taxes and raises sales tax.
***Looking Ahead*** - 6:45 (EU) ECB's Papademos - 8:00 (BR) Brazil May IBGE CPI IPCA-15 M/M: 0.6%e v 0.5% prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland April Producer Prices M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -1.2% v -2.4% prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland April Sold Industrial Output M/M: -8.0%e v 18.9% prior; Y/Y: 10.8%e v 12.3% prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland April Core Inflation M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 2.0% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada April Leading Indicators M/M: 0.7%e v 1.0% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 440Ke v 444K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.605Me v 4.627M prior - 9:00 (US) March RPX Composite 28-day Y/Y: No est v -0.18% prior - 9:00 (BE) Belgium May Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -8.0 prior - 9:15 (UK) BOE's Tucker - 10:00 (SZ) SNB's Jordan - 10:00 (US) May Philadelphia Fed Index: 21.3e v 20.2 prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico March Global Economic Indicator: 5.4%e v 3.4% prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico March Q1 GDP-Constant Y/Y: 4.0%e v -2.3% prior - 10:00 (EU) Euro zone May Consumer Confidence: -16e v -15 prior - 10:00 (US) April Leading Indicators: 0.2% v 1.4% prior - 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada review publication - 14:00 (US) Fed's Tarullo
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