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Thursday May 20, 2010 - 20:40:36 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Watch Those Crosses!

 

The Daily Forex View

GVI Forex Analysis 


Watch Those Crosses!

20:00 GMT- May 20 (global-view.com)  Thursday has seen active forex trade again, but it was centered in several other relationships. the JPY was strong as reportedly it was the recipient of  heavy flows out of the AUD. Japanese investors have been exiting their AUD investments in droves during most of this week as they have been losing substantial amounts on these holdings. There have also been substantial flows out of the EUR into the JPY. We strongly suspect that Japanese authorities were intervening heavily trying to contain the JPY. Yesterday, it was massive intervention by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in the EURCHF cross that first turned the markets and it looks like they were active again on Thursday. We also suspect that Japanese intervention Thursday was heavy.

Earlier, the German FinMin complained about EUR weakness but the French FinMin  expressed no concern about EUR weakness. The rift between Germany and France (plus the rest of Europe) on the EUR becomes increasingly evident every day. The developing new dimension to trade has been portfolio adjustments out of Asia. Apparently it has been Japanese investors who have been exiting the AUD in recent days. We hear also that Asian flows into the EUR generally have come to an abrupt halt recently.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   EUR vs.     GBP vs. 20:07
EUR 1.2510 117 JPY 112.10 -133 JPY 128.90 -305
GBP 1.4384 -32 GBP 86.97 100 CHF 165.43 -43
CHF 1.1501 -4 CHF 1.4388 130 CHF vs.    
JPY 89.61 -192       JPY 77.91 -164

The EURUSD is higher and the GBPUSD is steady. The EURGBP is better. Traders have been keeping an eye on the short squeeze in European sovereign debt and on the threat of forex intervention in the EUR.

In the GBP,  the U.K. new government is weak. Already news surfaced that the outgoing Labour government left a much larger budget deficit than earlier estimated. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.

The EURCHF is back up sharply. SNB intervention tactics have changed and this week it has taken a strong stand. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. The SNB has set a EURCHF floor of 1.4000.

The USDJPY pair is lower and the EURJPY cross is softer. Japanese public finances are a worry. however JGB bonds are mostly owned by Japanese. Japanese GDP data were stronger than expected. The government wants a lower exchange rate and has pressed the BOJ to promote growth. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         20:07
CAD 1.0675 236 AUD 0.8216 -230 Gold 1184 -8.22
CNY 6.8287 8 NZD 0.6681 -81 WTI 68.01 -3.00

The risk trade has been on and off in commodities and commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). The commodity currencies are down sharply as the risk trade remains off. there has been talk of heavy flows out of the commodity currencies back to the JPY. After the RBA recently raised its cash rate target, it also signaled a policy pause. Bank of Canada interest rates are expected to be hiked June 1. Monetary officials are unconcerned about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure on the central bank to tighten. Oil and gold are lower. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We had been favoring AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally, but some doubts are creeping in.

Far East equities closed lower. European bourses were down. U.S. equities are weaker. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.23%, -13 bps. Flight to safety demand is intact. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           20:07
NIK 10030 -157 DAX 5868 -121 DJIA 10154 -308
HSI 19546 -33 FTSE 5073 -85 S&P 1081 -36
SSEC 2556 -32 SMI 6262 0 NAS 2223 -78
ASX 4317 -71       TSE 11469 -208

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Far East markets will see the Bank of Japan decision Friday. No rate changes are seen.  In Europe , EZ flash manufacturing and service PMIs are awaited. Furthermore, the monthly German IFO survey is always closely followed. EZ Current Account data is also a feature. In North America , Canadian data will be the feature with CPI and retail sales data featured. No major U.S. data are due.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --23:50-- JP- Tankan Survey
John M. Bland, MBA
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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