Friday May 21, 2010 - 12:03:41 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 21-May-2010 - 1202 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.1493/96...Ranged with bullish bias
R: 1.1550-70 / 1.1641 / 1.17
S: 1.1470-50 / 1.1390-70 / 1.1300
Dollar-Swiss has been ranged between 1.1450-1.1580 over the last couple of days within the overall uptrend. On the downside, a strong break below 1.1450 might pull the pair down towards 1.1370 (8-DMA), which is the next significant Support level seen on the downside. The broader picture continues to remain bullish and we expect this 8-DMA to hold today incase a break below 1.1450 is seen in the US session today.
As mentioned above the overall picture is still bullish and we expect a break above further upmove towards 1.17-18 in the coming sessions/days.
GBP-USD @ 1.4367/71...Retaining the range within the overall downtrend
R: 1.4490 / 1.4520-45 / 1.4570
S: 1.43 / 1.4250 / 1.4180
Cable is retaining the rangen 1.4250-1.4520 in which it has been trading over the last few days within the overall downtrend. Our view continues to remain the same on the pair. A strong break below 1.4250 see the pair moving further down towards 1.41-40 in the coming sessions/days. While the Support at 1.4250 continues to hold, we might expect it to retain the range (1.4250-1.4520) in which it has been trading for sometime. Note that the 8-DMA (currently aat 1.4481) is the significant Resistance level to watch for on the upside which is expected hold and retain the overall downtrend.
GBP 10K Short at 1.4470, TSL 1.4430 (down from 1.4560), TP 1.41
As soon as the market trades 1.4280 bring TSL down to 1.4370
AUD-USD @ 0.8276/80...Resistance at 8-DMA (0.8321)
R: 0.8321 / 0.8450 / 0.8600-30
S: 0.8250 / 0.8200 / 0.8160
Aussie witnessed a break below the crucial Support at 0.82 yesterday. However, it has bounced back from the low of 0.8071 on the speculation that RBA would intervene. The 13-MA on the 4-hr chart (currently at 0.8321) is providing good Resistance since the bounce back rally and is retaining the downside pressure. While this 8-DMA Resistance continues to hold, we might expect a break below 0.8200 and see a downmove once again towards 0.81-80 in the coming sessions.
On the other hand, a strong break above the 8-DMA Resistance might increase the chances of further upmove towards 0.8450. But, we see very less chances for a rise to 0.8450 and we expect the 8-DMA Resistance to continue to hold.
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