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Friday May 21, 2010 - 15:13:57 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Friday, May 21, 2010 11:11:05 AM

 US Market Update

Dow +13 S&P +5 NASDAQ +9

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Apr Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.4%e; Disposable income: 3.7% v 4.8%e
- (RU) Russia Apr Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.2%e
- (CA) Canada Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7%e
- (CA) Canada Apr
CPI Core M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e
- (PD) Poland Apr Core Inflation M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e
- (CA) Canada Mar Retail Sales M/M: 2.1% v 0.1%e; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: 1.7% v 0.4%e
- (MX) Mexico Mar Retail Sales: % v 2.0%e v 2.3% prior
- (MX) Mexico Central Bank maintained the Overnight Rate at 4.50%; as expected

- US equity indices sagged in the premarket as the S&P500 futures fell beyond the lows seen during the May 6th flash crash. The DJIA opened under 10,000, and now both the Dow and the S&P500 are officially in correction, down more than 10% from recent highs from late April. This represents the first correction since the Spring of 2009. Equity markets appear to have found support at those flash crash lows and have moved into positive territory less than 90 minutes into today's session. Keep in mind that triple witching is also a factor this morning, with options expiration impacting flows. The euro has sustained the gains made yesterday beginning around
midday on news that German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy would prepare a united front at upcoming EU and G20 meetings (as well as vague rumors of impending central bank intervention and lots and lots of short covering). Both the upper and lower houses of the German parliament voted in favor of the big Euro Zone bailout package, providing a faint ray of positive news for Europe. Commodities have apparently found a floor, with further declines limited after more than a week of steep losses. July crude is trading around $70, while June gold is up a hair at $1,178. Spot copper is up 4% to above the $2 handle. Treasury prices surged in the early going, sending yields to levels not seen since mid 2009. The long bond was briefly below 4%, but prices have since recovered from earlier lows across the curve. The curve has continued to flatten though, with the benchmark spread now under 250 basis points.

- The leading US financial stocks are posting solid gains this morning now that the Senate version of the financial reform bill has passed and investors snap up shares that are looking ultra cheap this morning after the big declines this week. Goldman, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are all up nearly 4% in early trading. The legislation passed the Senate 59 to 39 and must now be reconciled with a similar bill passed by the House back in December. The two bills are broadly similar, however there are still about a dozen key differences that will need to be worked out in negotiations, which should begin next week. In other equity news, Brocade Communications and Dell both reported lackluster, in line reports after the close yesterday, and both names have been decimated in early trading, with DELL down 10% and
BRCD down 16%.

Germany's passage of the Euro Zone aid bill aided EUR/USD, helping it maintain a foothold in positive territory from Asian opening levels. USD/JPY pivotal support remains at 88.00 with the Japanese Post Office rumored to be bidding for USD ahead of thet level and 'significant' dollar sell-stop orders lingering below.

***Looking Ahead****
15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Trade Balance: $1.8Be v $311M prior
15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 8.9%e v 10.6% prior



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