Low Interest Rates; Global Recovery Fears Driving T-Bonds Higher
Flight-to-safety buying is driving June Treasury Bonds
sharply higher. Thursday trading action took out the recent high at 124â€™16.
Upside momentum seemed to be indicating that another surge was likely. The move
in the T-Bonds looks more reactionary than speculative with investors taking
their cues from the falling equity markets. With the strong possibility the
global economy will turn sour, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates low until
at least early next year, continue to look for an increase in demand for
June Crude Oil traded sharply lower on Thursday, its
expiration day. Overnight downside pressure has been limited because of the
rise in the Euro. The price action seems to be indicating that no one wants to
own crude oil. Liquidation of risky assets was one reason for the weakness.
Traders have been treating crude oil as a hedge against the Dollar. Now that
the U.S. Dollar is clearly on a path to move higher, there doesnâ€™t seem to be
any reason to hold on to long crude oil positions.
Supply and Demand issues are also pressuring the price of
crude oil. A slowdown in demand for energy because of weakness in the Euro Zone
is now projected to drive up inventories. Although this market is ripe for a
technical reversal up, fundamentally it remains weak. Look to sell rallies.
June Gold traded lower, but downside momentum appears to be
slowing. This means that gold is nearing a value area which may be attractive
to buyers. The charts indicate that a 50% level at $1167.90 is likely to be
tested along with an uptrending Gann angle at $1168.10. This creates a support
cluster at $1168.10 - $1167.90. Donâ€™t be surprised if fresh buyers show up to
trigger a technical bounce. This cluster was tested early this morning but so
far the bounce has been limited.
equity markets are trading lower as large investors continue to dump positions
due to risks and worries about Euro Zone debt and the stalling of the global
economic recovery. Conditions are a bit oversold but a slow down in the Euro
rally may help to trigger further downside pressure.
Technically, all three major stock markets seem to be
getting drawn to the spike bottoms put in during the first week in May. The low
target price in the June E-mini S&P 500 is 1056.00. The June E-mini
NASDAQâ€™s target is 1730.25 and the June E-mini Dow has a downside objective of
The short-covering rally which began on Wednesday continued
in the June Euro overnight ahead of Germanyâ€™s vote to approve the
massive deal to save the common currency and keep in check the Euro Zone debt
German lawmakers are expected to approve the recently
proposed loan package which should be received by investors as a show of
solidarity and a solid attempt to heal public finances. Germany is going to play a major
role in the political and economic unification of the Euro Zone so the approval
of this historic aid package is most important amid the current sell-off in the
After this weekâ€™s decision by Germany
to curb naked short selling triggered a wave of negative publicity, todayâ€™s
approval of the financial aid package by Europeâ€™s
biggest economy will be a strong sign that it is genuinely concerned about
bringing the Euro Zone nationâ€™s together while showing its support for the
With a record amount of shorts in the Euro, the market got
crowded leading to the current two-day short squeeze rally. The threat of an
intervention by the European Central Bank also helped lead to jitters in the
marketplace. Even if the ECB does not intervene, the mere threat of the
intervention makes investors wary of holding too many short positions. With the
main trend down, look for short traders to take advantage of the quick rise and
begin to slow down upside momentum by slowly reentering the market on the short
Technically, this current closing price reversal pattern
usually triggers a 2 to 3 day rally. This part has been confirmed by the
overnight action, however, the upside target is usually a 50% to 61.8% retracement
of the last leg down. Based on the last range of 1.3342 to 1.2143, the
retracement zone is pegged at 1.2742 to 1.2884.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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