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Friday May 21, 2010 - 15:51:38 GMT
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Low Interest Rates; Global Recovery Fears Driving T-Bonds Higher

Flight-to-safety buying is driving June Treasury Bonds sharply higher. Thursday trading action took out the recent high at 124’16. Upside momentum seemed to be indicating that another surge was likely. The move in the T-Bonds looks more reactionary than speculative with investors taking their cues from the falling equity markets. With the strong possibility the global economy will turn sour, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates low until at least early next year, continue to look for an increase in demand for T-Bonds.


June Crude Oil traded sharply lower on Thursday, its expiration day. Overnight downside pressure has been limited because of the rise in the Euro. The price action seems to be indicating that no one wants to own crude oil. Liquidation of risky assets was one reason for the weakness. Traders have been treating crude oil as a hedge against the Dollar. Now that the U.S. Dollar is clearly on a path to move higher, there doesn’t seem to be any reason to hold on to long crude oil positions. 


Supply and Demand issues are also pressuring the price of crude oil. A slowdown in demand for energy because of weakness in the Euro Zone is now projected to drive up inventories. Although this market is ripe for a technical reversal up, fundamentally it remains weak. Look to sell rallies.


June Gold traded lower, but downside momentum appears to be slowing. This means that gold is nearing a value area which may be attractive to buyers. The charts indicate that a 50% level at $1167.90 is likely to be tested along with an uptrending Gann angle at $1168.10. This creates a support cluster at $1168.10 - $1167.90. Don’t be surprised if fresh buyers show up to trigger a technical bounce. This cluster was tested early this morning but so far the bounce has been limited.


U.S. equity markets are trading lower as large investors continue to dump positions due to risks and worries about Euro Zone debt and the stalling of the global economic recovery. Conditions are a bit oversold but a slow down in the Euro rally may help to trigger further downside pressure.


Technically, all three major stock markets seem to be getting drawn to the spike bottoms put in during the first week in May. The low target price in the June E-mini S&P 500 is 1056.00. The June E-mini NASDAQ’s target is 1730.25 and the June E-mini Dow has a downside objective of 9840.


The short-covering rally which began on Wednesday continued in the June Euro overnight ahead of Germany’s vote to approve the massive deal to save the common currency and keep in check the Euro Zone debt crisis.


German lawmakers are expected to approve the recently proposed loan package which should be received by investors as a show of solidarity and a solid attempt to heal public finances. Germany is going to play a major role in the political and economic unification of the Euro Zone so the approval of this historic aid package is most important amid the current sell-off in the market.


After this week’s decision by Germany to curb naked short selling triggered a wave of negative publicity, today’s approval of the financial aid package by Europe’s biggest economy will be a strong sign that it is genuinely concerned about bringing the Euro Zone nation’s together while showing its support for the Euro.


With a record amount of shorts in the Euro, the market got crowded leading to the current two-day short squeeze rally. The threat of an intervention by the European Central Bank also helped lead to jitters in the marketplace. Even if the ECB does not intervene, the mere threat of the intervention makes investors wary of holding too many short positions. With the main trend down, look for short traders to take advantage of the quick rise and begin to slow down upside momentum by slowly reentering the market on the short side.


Technically, this current closing price reversal pattern usually triggers a 2 to 3 day rally. This part has been confirmed by the overnight action, however, the upside target is usually a 50% to 61.8% retracement of the last leg down. Based on the last range of 1.3342 to 1.2143, the retracement zone is pegged at 1.2742 to 1.2884.







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