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Monday May 24, 2010 - 09:49:56 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Reduced Participation

 

The Daily Forex View

GVI Forex Analysis 


Reduced Participation

10:00 GMT- May 24  (global-view.com)  Even though participation on the European Continent is reduced today due to the Whit Monday holiday, we have seen significant moves in key USD relationships. The lead EURUSD pair is trading lower suggesting that last weeks correction might have just about run its course. The important USDJPY pair is pivoting the 90.00 line. We are always keeping a keen eye on the EURCHF cross as Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervention in that pair has been a dominant feature of forex trading activity recently. 

Heading into the new week, we repeat that neither the U.S. nor Europe oppose a weakening of the EURUSD. They only do not like disorderly markets. What constitutes disorderly markets is very much in  the eye of the beholder.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 9:38
EUR 1.2422 -104 JPY 112.17 -68 JPY 130.55 79
GBP 1.4457 54 GBP 85.92 -104 CHF 167.44 204
CHF 1.1582 98 CHF 1.4387 2 CHF vs.    
JPY 90.30 21       JPY 77.97 -48

The EURUSD is lower and the GBPUSD is down. The EURGBP is soft. Traders have been keeping an eye on the short squeeze in European sovereign debt and on the threat of forex intervention in the EUR.

In the GBP the U.K. new government is weak. Already news surfaced that the outgoing Labour government left a much larger budget deficit than earlier estimated. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.

The EURCHF is back up. SNB intervention tactics have changed and this week it has taken a strong stand. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. The SNB has set a EURCHF floor of 1.4000.

The USDJPY pair is up and the EURJPY cross is higher. Japanese public finances are a worry. however JGB bonds are mostly owned by Japanese. The government wants a lower exchange rate and has warned the markets about the JPY. It also has been pressing the BOJ to promote growth. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         9:38
CAD 1.0585 -52 AUD 0.8310 2 Gold 1184 -0.10
CNY 6.8294 22 NZD 0.6747 -2 WTI 70.37 -0.20

The risk trade has been on and off in commodities and commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). The commodity currencies are mixed. There had been talk of heavy flows out of the commodity currencies back to the JPY. After the RBA recently raised its cash rate target, it also signaled a policy pause. Bank of Canada interest rates are expected to be hiked June 1. Monetary officials are unconcerned about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure on the central bank to tighten. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We had been favoring AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally, but some doubts are creeping in.

Far East equities closed mixed. European bourses are down. U.S. equities are weaker. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.22%, 0 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           9:38
NIK 9758 -26 DAX 5809 -28 DJIA 10193 125
HSI 19668 122 FTSE 5075 9 S&P 1088 16
SSEC 2673 117 SMI 6207 0 NAS 2229 25
ASX 4395 90       TSE 11521 115

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS  In North America, Canada is closed and the U.S. will release existing Homes sales.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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