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Monday May 24, 2010 - 10:07:56 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 24/05/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis May 24,
Fundamental Analysis: GDP (QoQ)
traders anticipate the publication of the UK GDP. The Gross Domestic Product is
the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the
economy's health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of
the economy as a whole. A higher than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the GBP. Analysts predict a future reading of
After the rocketing rise, from
1.2142 to 1.2670 late last week, the Euro retreated back to 1.2480. This drop
has came very close to the rising trend line from this cycleâ€™s low on the hourly
chart 1.2142, which is currently at 1.2492. We believe that a break of this line
(in case it happens) will be the technical event of the day. We can not just
guess the direction before the test of this line. The general trend is down, but
the rise from 1.2142 has shown enormous strength. In such a case, waiting for
the test of the trend line is the best thing one can do. In case this support is
broken the rocketing short term trend will be over, and the Euro will be back to
falling, and going along with the general trend. Todayâ€™s targets will be 1.2406
& then 1.2295. In case this resistance is broken, the price will continue
its advance upside, and the targets for the next 24 hours will be 1.2639, and
the very important 1.2729.
â€˘ 1.2492: the rising trend line
from Wednesdayâ€™s lows on hourly chart.
â€˘ 1.2406: Fibonacci 50% for the rise
from this cycle low, and the 4 and a half years low.
â€˘ 1.2295: important
intraday bottom from Thursdayâ€™s trading.
â€˘ 1.2545: the
falling trend line on intraday charts.
â€˘ 1.2639: important intraday
â€˘ 1.2729: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from
The dollar started to balance itself
above 90 in the past few hours, and it became in a good position to â€śattackâ€ť the
falling trend line on hourly chart. This line is currently at 90.32, only pips
below the current price. Will we see the Dollar breaking this line and rocketing
up? Today, Dollarâ€™s strength will completely depend on its ability to break the
resistance 90.32. If the Dollar can push the Yen above this resistance, we will
witness a strong rise, targeting 91.29 & 91.84. The latter is the most
important resistance for the short (and may be medium) term for now. The support
is at 89.56 and breaking it (if it happens) will target 88.96 itself &
87.99. The downtrend needs to hold below the falling hourly trend line to keep
things going smoothly (at 90.32). If broken, the short term negative technical
outlook will change dramatically. The yes in still the one wearing the pants in
this relationship, but beware of 90.57.
â€˘ 89.56: the rising
trend line from Thursdayâ€™s low.
â€˘ 88.96: yesterdayâ€™s low, and a previous very
â€˘ 87.99: Mar 6th low.
â€˘ 90.32: the
falling trend line on the hourly chart.
â€˘ 91.29: Fibonacci 50% for the short
â€˘ 91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€˘ 93.49: previous
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther
Marji for Forex Pros.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex
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investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in
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all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and
recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 16 Oct /ul>
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
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