The June E-mini S&P 500 is trading lower this morning
due to the weakness in the Euro. Traders are once again taking risk off the
table as they watch the possible contagion issues sweep across Europe.
Fridayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom was not confirmed
overnight, leading to speculation that a correction back to at least 1060.00 is
A confirmation of the reversal by a breakout over 1088.75
will set up the market for a minimum retracement to 1113.00 to 1127.50 over the
June Gold is trading higher this morning after high
volatility and overbought conditions drove large speculators to take profits.
For several weeks, gold traders had been buying the metal as a hedge against the
possible collapse in the Euro, but the recent slowdown in the fall in the Euro
gave speculators an opportunity to take a little bit off the table.
Last nightâ€™s renewed weakness in the Euro and concerns about
contagion in the Euro Zone because of the government takeover of a Spanish
financial institution is helping to drive up gold this morning.
Technically, June Gold is still in an uptrend as long as the
last swing bottom at $1156.20 holds as support. Last week this market corrected
into a 50% price at $1167.90 and an uptrending Gann angle at $1168.10. This
morning the Gann angle moves up to $1170.10.
Based on the developing short-term range of $1249.70 to
$1166.00, traders should look for a minimum near-term correction back to
$1207.80 to $1217.70. The test of this area should dictate the further
direction of gold. A failure in this zone will indicate a possible secondary
June Treasury Bonds are trading slightly higher but panic
buying has not been evident. Traders seem to be taking precautionary positions
against possible panic selling in the equity markets. A hard sell-off in the
stock market will likely lead to renewed buying in the T-Bonds which will lead
to a re-test of last weekâ€™s high at 126â€™01.
If the stock indices begin a correction or if traders begin
to reduce risky positions more heavily, then look for T-Bonds to drive higher
because of flight to quality buying.
September Crude Oil is trading lower but still straddling
the February bottom at 72.43. Additional support is being provided by a 50%
price at 72.16. A break under this level will trigger a further acceleration to
the 61.8% retracement level at 67.44.
Pressure will continue on crude oil if traders decide to
dump risky assets. This morning slightly bearish tone is being triggered by
weak conditions in the Euro.
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