Tuesday May 25, 2010 - 03:42:05 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 25-May-2010 - 0340 GMT
The US Equities closed lower yesterday. The Dow (10066.57) was down 1.24%, lowest since Feb-10 and the Nasdaq (2213.55) was down 0.69%. The Markets were down over the European debt concern, after the Bank of Spain bailed out CajaSur, Spain's biggest lender ,yesterday. Additionally, the uncertainity over the US Financial Overhaul Plan is also keeping the markets jittery. The Dow may fall towards 9500 on a break below 10000-9950 in the coming weeks.
The Asians are all in the Red today. The Nikkei (9526.67) is down 2.37%, the Shanghai (2643.39) is down 1.12% and the Hang Seng (19298.24) is down 1.88%. In India, the Sensex (16469.55) was up 0.15% and the Nifty (4943.95) was up 0.26% on a volatile session yesterday. The Sensex may fall towards 15500 on a break below 16100 in the coming weeks.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4327.90, down 1.92%) may find some Support near 4250-300 in the coming days.
Crude (69.58) has come off from yesterday's high of 70.96 and is now trading below 70. The stronger dollar, Euro zone's debt concerns are retaining the downside pressure as expected. If it continues to trade lower we might see 67-65 on the downside in the coming days.
Gold (1190.20) has bounced back from yesterday's low of 1176.80. A strong break above 1200 would trigger fresh rally towards 1230-50 once again. While below 1200, there are still some chances of dip to 1170-50. However, the broader picture is still bullish and we might expect a bounce back from 1170-50 region, if a dip to 1170-50 is seen. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
Continued fears of the Greek debt crisis spreading to south-European nations has brough the Euro (1.2310) down further today to a low near 1.2280 so far. Further weakness is possible. Dollar-Yen (90.10) may bearish as it failed to gain ground above 90.50 yesterday. The Euro-Yen Cross (110.92) has weakened substantially and looks set to re-test last week's low of 109.45. The charts are looking very vulnerable. The overall feeling is that the worse is not yet over.
Dollar-Swiss (1.1610) is trading at its highest level in more than a year and can climb further in the weeks ahead. The Pound (1.4365) is also weak, but less so than the Euro. The EUR-GBP Cross (0.8565) has come off quite a bit from last week's high near 0.8774. The Aussie (0.8213) is looking really very bearish, which is a cause for worry for the world as a whole, because Australia was being seen as a comparitively "high growth" countiry earlier.
In Asia, the Korean Won (1258.90) has weakened substantially, with war cries from North Korea adding to the overall miserable situaiton of the world. Dollar-Sing Dollar (1.4141) has also shot up and may test Thurday's high of 1.4169. The overall trend is quite bullish for the US Dollar. it might see some Resistance in the 47.25-45 region againt the Rupee though.
The 3M USD LIBOR crossed the psychological level of 0.50% yesterday and was up 1 bps to be set at 0.51% as the Euro zone's debt concerns has increased the concerns on the crediworthiness of the financial institutions. To see the LIBOR graph click on the following link:
The Treasury yields are also continuing to fall for the same reason. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 4 bps and 5 bps each to quote at 0.71% and 3.17%. To see the Yield graphs click on the following link:
08:30 GMT UK GDP Q1 '10 (Pre)
...Expected 0.3%...Previous 0.2%
13:00 GMT US Case Schiller
...Expected 2.5%...Previous 0.6%
14:00 GMT US Cons Conf
...Expected 59.1...Previous 57.9
14:00 GMT Apr US Existing Home Sales
...Actual 5.77 Mln...Previous 5.36 Mln
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