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Tuesday May 25, 2010 - 05:38:06 GMT
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June E-mini S&P 500 Fails to Confirm Friday’s Reversal Bottom

The June E-mini S&P 500 tried to but failed to confirm Friday’s closing price reversal bottom. After trading lower on the opening, the E-mini started to rally, buoyed by the news of a better than expected U.S. Existing Home Sales Report


By the mid-session the S&P 500 was flirting with turning positive, but buying dried up as the market neared Friday’s high at 1088.75. At the close, Friday’s closing price reversal bottom had not been confirmed, leading to speculation that there may be a correction back to at least 1060.00.


A confirmation of the reversal by a breakout over 1088.75 will set up the market for a minimum retracement to 1113.00 to 1127.50 over the near-term. A failure to confirm the reversal bottom indicates the possibility of a near-term correction back to 1060.00 to 1056.00.


June Gold finished higher after high volatility and overbought conditions drove large speculators to take profits last week. For several weeks, gold traders had been buying the metal as a hedge against the possible collapse in the Euro, but the recent slowdown in the fall in the Euro has given speculators an opportunity to take a little bit off the table.


Monday’s renewed weakness in the Euro and concerns about contagion in the Euro Zone because of the government takeover of a Spanish financial institution helped to drive up gold.


Technically, June Gold is still in an uptrend as long as the last swing bottom at $1156.20 holds as support. Last week this market corrected into a 50% price at $1167.90 and an uptrending Gann angle at $1168.10. On Tuesday, the Gann angle moves up to $1172.10.


Based on the developing short-term range of $1249.70 to $1166.00, traders should look for a minimum near-term correction back to $1207.80 to $1217.70. The test of this area should dictate the further direction of gold. A failure in this zone will indicate a possible secondary lower-top formation.


June Treasury Bonds finished lower as the see-saw trading in the equity markets encouraged traders to liquidate flight-to-safety trades put on last week when stocks plunged and T-Bonds soared to a new high for the year at 126’01.


Traders have been ignoring the abundance of supply in the markets and instead have been focusing on the likelihood the Fed will leave interest rates near zero until next year and the on-going concerns in the Euro Zone economy.


Watch the U.S. equity markets for clues as to which way the T-Bonds will move. Panic selling in the stock market is likely to drive investors into the safety of the Treasury instruments.


September Crude Oil straddled the February bottom at 72.43 earlier most of the day in limited trading. Additional support was being provided by a 50% price at 72.16. A break under this level will trigger a further acceleration to the 61.8% retracement level at 67.44. Although the Euro finished sharply lower, it did stabilize during the New York session, helping to underpin crude oil. Another round of risky asset dumping is likely to drive crude oil lower.


The June Euro traded sharply lower overnight and early in the session as nervous traders reacted to the news that Spain’s government had takeover a struggling financial institution. The heavy selling pressure last night was also a sign that short-traders were still lurking out there with their fingers on the sell button.


This action triggered fear that sovereign debt problems were spreading across Europe. Shortly after the U.S. opening, the Euro began to stabilize after testing a daily chart .618 retracement level at 1.2345. Regaining the 50% level at 1.2407 will put the Euro in a strong position to rally into the close.


From a technical perspective, today’s action was not bad. Following last week’s daily/weekly reversal bottoms the market was expected to confirm these patterns with a follow-through rally, but instead the bad news drove the market back down into a retracement zone. If last week’s bottom is good, then a secondary higher bottom should begin forming in this retracement zone. In other words, stopping between 1.2407 and 1.2345 will be the first strong indication that buyers are stepping in. The first leg of the bottoming process is usually short-covering; the second leg is when the buyers step up.


The June British Pound traded a little lower after confirming a new two-day main bottom at 1.4229. Based on the new range formation, look for the start of a possible rally to 1.4810 over the near-term. The announcement this morning of new budget cuts was received positively because it is a sign that the new government is willing to work swiftly to help shore up the U.K.’s budget deficit and huge debt obligation..



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