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Wednesday May 26, 2010 - 03:30:59 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 26-May-2010 - 0329 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Some stabilisation came back into Equities later in the US session yesterday after the Dow (10043.75) first fell to an intra-day low of 9774.48. As a result, Asian indices are trading flat to higher today. Indonesia is up 3%, Australia is up 1.05% while China is down a modest 0.16%.

"Disaster", so to say, may have been averted in the short-term, but the Dow still looks weak overall, with strong Resistance at 10500 overall. Yesterday's bounce in the Dow seems to be techincal short-covering. The Sensex, which had closed at 16022.48 yesterday, may see a 240 point bounce today. Overall, there may be chances of a rise towards 17000 while the Support at 16000 holds.


COMMODITIES
Crude (69.35) fell sharply and recorded a low of 67.15 yesterday. The stronger dollar and weak global equity markets pulled down the price yesterday. Though it has bounced back from yesterday's low, with Resistance at 71.80-72.00 region, it is expected to remain pressured on the downside. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/nymexcrudecandle.shtml#candle

Gold (1202.30) is back above 1200 once again. The broader bullish sentiment is intact. While above 1200, we see good chances of a rise to 1250-70 in the coming days.

The Gold/Crude ratio has bounced back from the Resistance-turned-Support trendline level, which adds support for our bullish view on Gold. To see the Gold-Crude ratio graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/crudeandgold.shtml#ma


CURRENCIES
A bit of all-round stabilisation in the currency markets as well in the US session yesterday.

The Euro (1.2296) recovered a bit to 1.2389 in the US session yesterday from an ealier low near 1.2180. Further recovery might be possible if it manages to rise past 1.2340 in the Asian-European session today. On the downside, 1.2230 is an intra-day Support. Dollar-Yen (90.16) has also recovered on the back of stabilisation in the Euro. The outlook is stable/ unclear for Dollar-Yen. The Cross (110.83) too has recovered a bit from yesterday's new low near 108.80, but remains in an overall strong downtrend.

The Pound (1.4382) is up from yesterday's low near 1.4255 and is likely to be ranged between 1.45-43 for a couple of days. Dollar-Swiss (1.16) had dropped to a low near 1.1518 in late-US/ early Asian trading, but is bouncing a bit from there. The overall trend remains bullish. The Aussie (0.8218) rallied to 0.83 overnight but has fallen back again from there. The overall trend remains very bearish while the Aussie trades below 0.86. Still, we may see some short-term stabilisation between 0.8070 and 0.8370 for a couple of days.

In Asia, the Korean Won trades near 1254.50, a bit stronger than yesterday's weak point of 1277. See Support for USD-KRW near 1230 today. Some stabilisation is possible within an overall uptrend. The USD-SGD (1.4117) has come off a bit from yesterday's high near 1.4205, but has near term Support near 1.41. Might see stabilisation between 1.4050-4160 for a couple of days. Dollar-Rupee, which had closed at 47.70 yesterday may well remain below 48.00 today.


INTEREST RATES
The 3M USD LIBOR was set 0.54%, the highest level since 07-Jul-09. The market is expecting further rise in the LIBOR rate as the Euro zone's debt concern is still retaining the pressure on the market. To see the LIBOR graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdlib.shtml#usd

The 2Y yield was up 9 bps to quote at 0.80% while the 10Y yield was unchanged at 3.17%. The yields have been falling sharply since Apr-2010, thereby reversing the uptrend seen since Dec-2008. To see the USD Yield graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00


DATA TODAY
12:30 GMT Aprr US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected 1.4%...Previous -0.6%

14:00 GMT Apr US New Home Sales
...Expected 420K...Previous 411K


DATA YESTERDAY
-------------
UK GDP Q1 '10 (Pre)
...Actual 0.3%...Previous 0.2%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ukgdp.shtml

US Case Schiller
...Actual 2.3%...Previous 0.7%

US Cons Conf
...Actual 63.3...Previous 57.7

 

 

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