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Wednesday May 26, 2010 - 09:48:30 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- More Optimistic View

 

The Daily Forex View

GVI Forex Analysis 


More Optimistic View

10:00 GMT- May 26  (global-view.com)  Forex markets have been congesting early Wednesday as short term trading seems to be lacking a universal focus. Worry yesterday about the Spanish banking system seems already to have faded, suggesting that those worries did not run very deep or that they were simply a pretext for selling the EUR. Odds are the focus today will be on the equity markets again. They are looking better. In the past few days we have started to keep a keen eye on the U.S. 10-yr yield as a leading indicator of confidence in the markets.  Equity prices always seem to follow. The yield on the 10-yr is presently considerably higher than late Tuesday levels at 3.25% +9bps. 

Neither the U.S. nor Europe are opposed to a weakening of the EURUSD, but they will be unnerved by panic selling of the EUR. Mainly they do not like disorderly forex markets. What constitutes disorderly markets is very much in  the eye of the beholder.

CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

  

Forex   #REF!     GBP vs. 9:37
EUR 1.2326 -20 JPY 111.22 -4 JPY 130.00 19
GBP 1.4408 3 GBP 85.55 -16 CHF 166.18 -38
CHF 1.1534 -29 CHF 1.4217 -59 CHF vs.    
JPY 90.23 11       JPY 78.23 29

The EURUSD is steady and the GBPUSD is also. The EURGBP is steady. Traders have been keeping an eye on the short squeeze in European sovereign debt and on the threat of forex intervention in the EUR.

In the GBP the U.K. new government is weak. Already news surfaced that the outgoing Labour government left a much larger budget deficit than earlier estimated. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.

The EURCHF is down. SNB intervention tactics have changed, as recently the SNB has taken a strong stand. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. The SNB has set a EURCHF floor of 1.4000.

The USDJPY pair is steady and the EURJPY cross is unchanged. Japanese public finances are a worry. however JGB bonds are mostly owned by Japanese. The government wants a lower exchange rate and has warned the markets about the JPY. It also has been pressing the BOJ to promote growth. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies


Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity         9:37
CAD 1.0675 -8 AUD 0.8297 34 Gold 1212 13.77
CNY 6.8275 -45 NZD 0.6702 17 WTI 70.51 1.28

The risk trade has been on and off in commodities and commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). The commodity currencies are better. The RBA recently signaled a policy pause. Bank of Canada interest rates are expected to be hiked June 1. Monetary officials are unconcerned about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure on the central bank to tighten. Oil and gold are higher. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We had been favoring AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally, but some doubts are creeping in.

Far East equities closed higher. European bourses are up. U.S. equities are up. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.25%, +9 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

  

Equities           9:37
NIK 9523 63 DAX 5763 93 DJIA 10044 22
HSI 19196 211 FTSE 5031 90 S&P 1074 3
SSEC 2626 3 SMI 6174 0 NAS 2211 5
ASX 4307 42       TSE 11518 101

CALENDAR

UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS:  In North America , weekly mortgage statistics, Durable Goods Orders, New Homes sales and weekly energy data are slated. A five-yr note auction is awaited as well.

See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.


John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.


 

Forex Trading News

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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