European Market Update: OECD raises 2010 and 2011 GDP estimates on Far East prospects (Trade the News)
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
European Market Update: OECD raises 2010 and 2011 GDP estimates on Far East prospects
***Economic Data*** - (GE) Jun GFK Consumer Confidence: 3.5v 3.6e - (FR) France May Business Confidence: 97 v 97e; Production Outlook: -3 v 8e; Own-Company Production: 4t v 6 prior - (FR) France Apr Consumer Spending M/M: -1.1% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.4%e - (SP) Spain Mar Mortgages on House Y/Y: 2.4% v 8.5% prior; Mortgages Capital Loaned Y/Y: -4.0% v -9.3% prior - (SW) Sweden Apr Trade Balance (SEK): 6.9B v 7.0Be - (PD) Poland Apr Unemployment Rate: 12.3% v 12.5%e - (PD) Poland Apr Retail Sales M/M: -5.6% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v 4.2%e - (UK) Apr BBA Loans for Home Purchases: 35.7K v 37.0Ke - (SA) South Africa CPI (all items) M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.8% v 5.0%e - (GE) German Bobl Tap Auction for â‚¬5.445B, 2.25% Apr 2015, Bid-to-Cover 1.1x v 1.5x prior - (PO) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold â‚¬1.0B in 3.35% Oct 2015 OTs; avg yield 3.701% v 3.498% prior; bid-tocover 1.8x v 1.8x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equities opened the session higher, led by gains in the peripheral countries. Today's advances have been led by basic material and banking shares. Additionally, earnings from retailer Burberry have supported the FTSE 100. Overall, the best gains have been seen in the peripheral European equity markets.
- In Individual Stocks: Shaftesbury [SHB.UK]: Reported H1 profit of Â£122.7M comparing favorably to loss of Â£159.9M a year ago, adj Pretax Â£11.1M slightly below year-ago of Â£11.3M; Property Revenues at Â£35.6M below year ago level of Â£36.9M. Saw weakening of sterling as beneficial for domestic and overseas tourism II Burberry [BRBY.UK]: Reported Prelim FY10 Pretax profit Â£166M comparing favorably to year-ago loss of Â£16.1M and Revenues of Â£1.28B slightly below estimates of Â£1.3B. Raised dividend by 17% II Hogg Robinson [HRG.UK]: Reported prelim FY Op profit Â£28.4M comparing favorably to year-ago figures of Â£24.7M and Revenues,of Â£326.8M below year-ago figures of Â£351.3M. Company expected an an increase in travel activity from existing client base as businesses generally begin to benefit from any economic recover II British Petroleum [BP.UK]: Provided update on continuing subsea efforts over the GoM oil spill saying it was focusing on progressing options to stop the flow of oil from the well through interventions via the blow out preventer (BOP), and to collect the flow of oil from the leak points. It was reported that the US govt could issue penalties up to $60B II Kloeckner & Co [KCO.GE]: During its AGM reiterated FY10 forecast of Revenue growth of more than 25%. Company was positive on Q2 trading, particuarly price and volume developments. Noted that overcapacity could put pressure on steel prices but that decline would be limited.
- Speakers: OECD Chief Economist Padoan commented in a French press interview that the Euro currency overvalued for too long. He noted that a weaker euro currency was good news for the Euro region in the short-term and saw no risk of double-dip recession in Euro-zone. He also stated that a gradual appreciation of Chinese Yuan currency was also desirable *** ECB's Noyer commented that recent interventions by the central bank on markets did not point to a new policy and that measures must remain exceptional. Markets can expect resolute action from central banks when turbulence threatened its normal monetary policy. He reiterates that main priority remained price stability and that central banks need to be seen as acting independently. Noyer noted that he never comments on short term currency moves but noted that the area in which euro was moving wa close to long-term average. *** ECB's Liikanen commnented that the ECB bond buying operation did not reflect any monetary policy change. He reiterated that current monetary policy was appropriate and that bond buy proceeds will be drained. There were signs that the financial system was slowly recovering but fiscal imbalances put financial stability at risk *** ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo reiterates ECB bond buys were temporary measure and would be sterilized *** S&P Analyst commented that Italy's extra budget measures put public finances on more sustainable footing *** OECD April economic outlook revises 2010 global GDP growth forecast higher to 4.6% from 3.4% prior. It now saw 2011 growth at 4.5% versus 3.7% prior back in Nov.Global economy was recovering faster than expected from recession with Asia leading the way. Biggest challenge the advanced economies faced right now was cutting post-recession debts and containing financial market instability. It noted that unemployment might have peaked at around 8.5% compared to its Nov forecast of 10%. Forecasted 2010 US GDP growth at 3.2% versus 2.5% prior. It saw 2010 Japan GDP growth at 3.0% v 1.8% prior; 2011 growth at 2.0% v 2.0% prior. For Europe the OECD saw 2011 GDP at 1.2% v 0.9% prior; 2011 growth at 1.8% v 1.7% prior. *** Italy's ISTAT Chief commented that the country's austerity budget might hurt consumer spending
- Currencies/Fixed income: Risk aversion sentiment had thawed from levels seen just 24 hours ago with a decent rebound on Wall Street on Tuesday complemented by a rally in Asian equities. FX chat focused on equities with dealer taking note of a Morgan Stanley strategist who called for bottom in risk assets on Tuesday (this analyst recommended selling risk in early May). The capitulation seemed to be characterized by heavy NYSE volume which was almost 50% higher than its 2010 average. The EUR/USD tested below 1.2270 on the back of comments from OECD economist about the benefits of a weak euro but the rise in risk appetite provided the EUR/USD some consolidation capabilities thanks to the rise in stocks and commodity prices in the session. The German 5-year Bobl auction saw a weak bid-to-cover but the historic low yields seem to be the driver for the lackluster demand and not any indication of flight from German debt . EUR/USD holding above 1.2330 area ahead of the NY morning. The Portuguese bond auction would be seen as the true test of the session's sentiment just ahead of the NY morning.
- Geo-Political: Members of Spain's parliament to take a 10% pay cut in order to reduce budget gap following last week's budget announcement to cut government wage and 'freeze' in pensions. *** An article in the Financial Times featured polling data on approval rating for various EU politicians. Spain's Zapatero's approval rating fell to 33.7% after announcement of austerity measures two weeks ago at 37.5%. The article further noted that Zapatero is also facing the possibility of a call for early elections from the opposition, with conservative party polling above the ruling Socialists by 42.8% to 33.7% margin.
***Notes/Observations: - Traders ponder if equity capitulation occurred on Tuesday with NYSE volume about 50% above 2010 avg - Germany's 5-year Bobl auction bid-to-cover 1.1x v 1.5; More about the historic low yields not any indication of flight from German debt - OECD raises 2010 and 2011 global GDP growth estimates - Banks downgraded by market forces as swaps soar
***Looking Ahead*** - (BR) Brazil Apr Central Gov't Budget: $12.0Be v -$4.6B prior - 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgages Applications w/e May21st: No est v -1.5% prior - 7:00 (BR) Brazil May FGV Construction Costs M/M: No est v 1.2% prior - 8:30 (US) Apr Durables Goods Orders: 1.3%e v -1.2% prior (revised); Durables Ex Transportation: 0.3%e v 3.7% prior (revised) - 8:30 (EU) EU's Barroso - 9:00 (US) US Treasury Sec Geithner with UK's Osborne - 9:00 (BE) Belgium May Business Confidence: -2.8e v -2.4 prior - 9:00 (CA) Canada Apr House Price Index Y/Y: No est v 9.9 prior - 9:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 1.45T prior; Private Banks Lending: No est v 845B prior - 10:00 (US) Apr New Home Sales: 425Ke v 411K prior - 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE energy inventories - 10:00 Fed's Alvarez testifies on AIG rescue - 13:00 (US) US Treasury to sell $ 40.0B in 5-year notes - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 36.9% prior - 16:15 Fed's Lacker
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