Wednesday May 26, 2010 - 21:02:02 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)
Morning Report Thursday 27 May 2010
News and views
A calmer evening saw equity and commodity markets continue their corrective rallies until a late NY sell-off. The rallies were largely technical reactions to the oversold conditions of most markets, but there was some positive US data and an upwardly revised OECD economic outlook to lend support. The S&P500 is currently down 0.4%, having been in the black most of the evening, and the VIX index is unchanged. Earlier, the Eurostoxx50 closed 1.7% higher, Italy's budget cuts well received. Commodities are 1.6% higher in aggregate, oil rising 3.9%, and copper +1.3%. US 10yr treasuries rose 5-7bp in yield across the curve, the second auction this week (for 5yr notes) also an ordinary affair at 1bp above pre-auction market. US 3mth Libor was unchanged at 0.538%.
The US dollar index is firmer. EUR was under pressure during much of the evening, falling from 1.2345 to the current 1.2180. USD/JPY ranged between 90.00 and 90.50, slipping as we write.
AUD rose from 0.8240 to 0.8390, but has pulled back to 0.8230 with the EUR and late US equities sell-off. There were reports the mining tax proposal may be amended.
NZD did likewise, pulling back from a NY high of 0.6743 to 0.6607, an IMF report of NZD overvaluation (repeated from their previous report) not helping. AUD/NZD rose steadily from around 1.2375 to 1.2485, but has slipped to 1.2400 with the late risk sell-off.
US durable goods orders up 2.9% in Apr, just shy of Westpac's 3% forecast, and back revisions meant that Mar's fall was revised away, so Apr was the fifth straight month without an orders decline. The detail showed auto orders up for the second month running and that combined with the huge 228% surge in civilian aircraft orders explained all of the Apr gain; ex transport orders fell 1%. Core capital good orders were down 2.4% but that followed a cumulative rise of around 10% over the prior two months, so the trend is still positive, consistent with up-beat business surveys and recent solid industrial production data.
US new home sales saw a 14.8% rise in April on top of their near 30% jump in March. The numbers sound big but are from a very low base. The April sales number is still 64% below the 2005 peak, compared to Feb which was close to the cycle low and was 76% below the 2005 peak. Also, the surge in sales would reflect buyers scrambling to take advantage of the tax credit for first home-buyers which finally expired on April 30. Sales from May onwards are likely to fall sharply.
Minutes for April 30 BoJ meeting provided little additional detail on the outlook for the Japanese economy and the previously announced support measures. The economy was seen as being on a recovery trend, and the pace of decline in prices was expected to moderate going forward.
The pace of decline in Japanese corporate service prices moderated in April to -1.1%yr, from -1.2%yr in March.
German consumer confidence slipped from 3.7% to 3.5% in the survey labelled June, that was conducted in early May. That means confidence has fallen in six of the last 8 months, after steadily recovering through the first three quarters of 2009.
UK new loans for home purchase numbered 35.7k in April, up slightly from 35.0k in March, but still well down on December 2009's 45.8k; there has been a renewed slowdown in home lending so far this year.
The OECD published updated forecasts. The OECD group of 30 industrial economies is forecast to grow 2.7% this year, up from their Nov forecast of 1.9%, and compared to Westpac's more sober 1.1% assessment (due to our weaker forecasts for Euroland, UK and the US). The OECD's global growth forecast of 4.6% is also stronger than Westpac's 3.8% (partly due to definitional differences), although our forecasts converge in 2011, with the OECD on 4.5% and Westpac on 4.4%.
Canadian house prices rose at an 11.6% yr annual pace in Mar, up from 9.9% yr in February, according to Teranet/National Bank.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: AUD should be capped by 0.8400, with 0.8200 vulnerable. NZD should similarly sit inside 0.6550 and 0.6750.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. Â© 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substan
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