European Market Update: Risk appetite in session aided by China's commitment to Europe (Trade the News)
Thursday, May 27, 2010
European Market Update: Risk appetite in session aided by China's commitment to Europe
***Economic Data*** - (FI) Finland May Consumer Confidence: 15.8 v 17.2e; Business Confidence: 8.0 v 1.0 prior - (FR) France May Consumer Confidence: -38 v -38e - (GE) German May CPI - Saxony M/M: 0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1% prior - (HU) Hungary Apr Unemployment Rate: %11.8 v 11.7%e - (SP) Spain Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: -2.3% v 3.5% prior; Adj Retail sales Y/Y: -2.3% v 2.1% prior - (SP) Spain Mar Total Housing Permits M/M: 26.6% v 23.2% prior; Y/Y: -7.6% v -20.3% prior - (SZ) Swiss Q1 Employment Level: 3.961M v 3.960M prior; Employment Level Y/Y: 0.1% v -0.1% prior - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves w/e May 21st: $453.4B v $458.2B prior - (SW) Sweden Apr PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.2%e - (IT) Italy May Business Confidence: 96.2 v 95.9e - (GE) German May CPI - Hesse M/M: 0.0% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8% prior - (GE) German May CPI - Brandenberg M/M: 0.2% v 0.0% prior, Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.7% prior - (IT) Italy Apr Hourly Wages M/M: 0.3% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3% prior - (GE) German May CPI - North Rhine- Westphalia M/M: 0.1% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.8% prior - (HK) Hong Kong Apr Trade Balance (HKD): -35.2BB v -33.0B; Exports Y/Y: 21.7% v 19.3%e; Import Y/Y: 28.8% v 26.0%e - (IC) Iceland May CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 7.5% v 8.3% prior - (TT) Taiwan Apr Leading Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.3% prior; Coincident M/M: 0.2% v 2.2% prior - (SA) South Africa Apr PPI M/M: 1.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.5% v 4.6%e
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equities opened the session higher and most indices are currently trading on their best levels. Equities have been supported by corporate earnings and the early gains in the Asian equity market. Additionally, comments from China regarding the euro have been supportive. Dealers also cited comments from Hedge fund manager Barton Biggs that US stock markets were oversold and might rally strongly in the next few days.
- In Individual Stocks: Richemont [CFR.SZ]: Reported FY10 Net of â‚¬599 below estimates of â‚¬716M and Revenues of â‚¬5.2B slightly above estimates of â‚¬5.1B. Company also announced its intention to repurchase 10M shares. On the outlook, it noted a more difficult H2. // Man Group [EMG.UK]: Reported FY pretax $541M above estimates of $538M. Following the acquisition of GLG company expects to create a diversified alternative investment manager, with approximately $63 billion of funds under management.// Tate & Lyle [TATE.UK]: Reported FY pretax profit Â£229 above estimates of Â£222M and Revenues of Â£3.51B below estimates of Â£3.6B. Expected industrial starch margins to remain at lower levels, reflecting industry overcapacity putting pressure on pricing, and we see little near term improvement in ethanol markets // X5 [FIVE.UK]: Reported Q1 Net profit of $78.9M versus a loss of $82.1M, Revenues at $2.54 in line with estimates of $2.5B and an increase of 7% in SSS. Guided FY sales growth in the low 20% range//Seadrill [SDRL.NO]: Reported Q1 EBITDA of $434M below estimates of $470M, Revenues of $853M below year-ago figures of $879M. Company has increased exposure to the offshore drilling market. // Suedzucker [SZU.GE]: Reported FY10 EBITDA â‚¬645M higher than year-ago figures of â‚¬489M and Revenues of â‚¬5.7B slightly below estimates of â‚¬5.9B. Guided FY10/11 Revenues flat y/y and operating profit at â‚¬450M. Also expected a decline in the sugar segment over the year due to European sugar reform. // Antofagasta [ANTO.UK]: Reported EBITDA at $623.4M above year-ago figures of $264.4M and Revenues at $981.9M also above year-ago figures of $544M. The revenue increase mainly reflected the impact of higher realised prices for copper and molybdenum during the period, as well as increased copper sales volumes
- Speakers: China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) stated that reports that China was reviewing its euro zone bond holdings were groundless. The FX regulator stated that Europe would remain a major investment market for China. It also stressed that China to continue with process of diversifying reserves. China support actions to help Europe resolve the debt crisis and supported EU/IMF plan to stabilize Europe***Bank of Korea (BoK) stated that it had no plans to lower its Euro assets in its $279B currency reserves ***Fed's Bullard commented that the EU bailout had brought governments time and that any potential debt restructuring in the region from the crisis would probably be years away. He noted that restoring credibility for European fiscal policy would take time. He commented that the current rate for currency swap lines with ECB were appropriate and had work fine in the past. He added that the central bank swap facility had been used sparingly so far. Bullard stated that an increase in US Discount rate was unlikely at this time given current strains **ECB's Nowotny reiterated the view that it was necessary to have budget consolidation that was credible ***ECB's Weber commented that the central bankwas watching market developments closely and that it was too early to determine if financial crisis was over. He added that the financial system reforms needed to deal with ways to restructure large bank failures ***Russia Central Bank Ignatiev commented that there was no serious threat to its economy from current RUB currency rate and stressed that there was no discussion on changing reserves makeup. The Ruble effective rate was not above pre-crisis trend He added that he did not see any flight from Euro assets to emerging markets and observed the current Euro currency volatility was not extraordinary. He did noted that Russia would increase gold share of its reserve *** German DIW Institute stated that it was concerned over Euro's weighing upon consumer sentiment but it maintained its current view on Q2 German GDP outlook at 0.7% q/q (same as its Apr view). It saw clear gains in the export-driven key industries that reflected an upswing that was increasingly stabilizing
-Currencies/Fixed income: Comments from Chinese officials that it would maintain its policy of reserve diversification provided a rebound in the Euro pairs. This sentiment was echo by some Japanese Lifers who implied that says not considering changing their investment view despite recent Euro currency declines. Bank of Korea also commented that it had no plans to lower Euro assets in FX reserves. Lastly the Russian Central Bank stressed that its reserve makeup was not altered. The EUR/USD opened the European session testing the 1.2340 area on the soothing comments from China on the Euro. However, chatter that Kuwait might reduce its investments in the EU region sent the pair back below the 1.23 level to test 1.2350 at one point. The GBP/USD was firmer aided by chatter that UK's Prudential's bid for AIA would not succeed. The pair tested 1.4550 as the NY morning approached.
- Geo-Political: Iranian President Ahmadinejad warned US to accept offer to export its uranium to Turkey to settle nuclear row. In addition, he told Russia not to support UN sanctions, which resulted in negative feedback from Russia. Chief Kremlin Foreign Policy Advisor called on Iran to refrain from 'political demagoguery'. Note the Iranian President Ahmadinejad accused Russia of 'siding with those who have been our enemy for 30 years' after Russia backed fresh UN sanctions against Iran. *** UK Foreign Secretary Hague reported to the House of Commons the country's first public accounting of its nuclear stockpile of 225 warheads. The US earlier disclosed 5,113 nuclear warheads at opening of five year review of Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty on the 3rd of May. ***UK Secretary of State for Business Cable to relinquish his role as deputy leader for the Liberal Democrats to focus on his new role as business secretary of the new coalition. *** Australia's Treasury Secretary Henry had said he was not aware of any plans to change the structure of the proposed tax. The budget surplus will not depend on mining tax; Projections for 2012-13 budget surplus remain. Says the mining tax figures floated by Treasurer Swan are accurate.
***Notes/Observations: - Far East names stress support for European investments. China's sovereign wealth fund, FX regulator; Russia Central bank; Japanese Lifers all express support for Euro in session. - China FX regulator SAFE: Path of currency diversification will not change. - US Treasury Sec Geithner in Europe lecturing that the region get its fiscal house in order - Zero Hedge: Moody's is the next Lehman. - Bank of Spain tells domestic banks to start to provision for foreclosed real estate - Spain's parliament debates the first wave of austerity measures; seen passing by 1 vote
***Looking Ahead*** (GE) Germany May Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.0% prior (GE) Germany May Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 1.0% prior - 7:00 ECB's Paramo in Spain - 8:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Unemployment Rate: 7.5%e v 7.6% prior - 8:00 US Treasury Sec Geithner and German Fin Min Schaeuble - 8:30 (US) Q1 Advance GDP Q/Q Annualized: 3.4%e v 3.2% prior; Personal Consumption: 3.8%e v 3.6% prior - 8:30 (US) Q1 Advanced GDP Price Index: 0.9%e v 0.9% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.6%e v 0.6% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 455Ke v 471K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.613Me v 4.625K prior - 9:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -1.4Be v -17.1B prior; Primary Budget Balance: 15.0Be v -0.2B prior; Net Debt to GDP ratio: 42.2%e v 42.45 prior - 11:15 US Treasury's Wolin - 13:00 (US) US Treasury to sell $31B in 7-year notes - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Supermarket sales Y/Y: No est v 11.9% prior - 15:00 (EU) OECD Jun Euro Zone Economic Outlook - (CO) Colombia Central Bank interest rate decision: Expected to maintain the Overnight Lending rate at 3.00%
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