The EUR USD is trading higher this morning, but still
struggling with a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2345. Regaining this price
will be the key to igniting a surge to the upside.
At this time, last weekâ€™s reversal bottom at 1.2143 is still
holding with what appears to be a support base being built. This is actually
positive action because the bigger the support base, the higher the market can
go if there is renewed buying interest.
Shorts are clearly in control of the Euro at this time, but
they donâ€™t seem to be pounding the currency at current levels. These traders
remain poised to drive this market lower, provided there is fresh news to which
to react. Earlier in the week, the Euro sold off on news that the Spanish
government had taken over an ailing bank. On Wednesday, the Euro weakened on
rumors that China
was readying to sell Euro-denominated bonds. Both events failed to trigger a
new low in the Euro. This indicates that there may be a stopper in the market
or that hedge funds and large institutions are beginning to prefer selling
rallies rather than weakness.
Continue to look for downside pressure to remain on the Euro
over the long-run, but watch how this market reacts as it nears the low at
1.2143. If selling subsides and the Euro regains 1.2345, then look for a strong
short-covering rally to develop. Keep in mind, however, that the main trend
will remain down until the last swing top at 1.2671 is violated.
Easing tensions in the Euro Zone are helping to boost demand
for higher risk assets. Since last week, the Euro has been trying to form a
bottom but has been met by both fundamental and technical obstacles in the
process. On Wednesday, rumors that China was re-evaluating its
Euro-denominated bond portfolio sent the single-currency lower along with crude
oil and stock indices. Overnight trading was another story however.
Last night Chinaâ€™s
foreign exchange reserves manager denied a news report that it was considering
the sale of some of its holdings of Euro-denominated bonds.This helped the Euro rebound, sending the
Dollar lower against most currency-linked commodities. With the Dollar trading
lower, demand for higher risk assets rose.
Stronger demand for higher yielding assets is helping to
drive up the commodity-linked Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars
while pressuring the lower-yielding Japanese Yen.
The AUD USD is trading higher this morning, underpinned by
the stronger global equity markets. The charts indicate that there is plenty of
room to the upside with a possible retracement to .8727 to .8883 likely over
The NZD USD has confirmed the closing price reversal bottom
at .6560. The daily chart indicates that this market could retrace back to
.6942 over the near-term.
Strong crude oil is helping to pressure the USD CAD. Once
again this market has rejected the former top at 1.0738. Downside momentum is
building which could drive this market to 1.0481 to 1.0394 over the near-term.
Increased demand for higher yielding assets is helping to
boost the USD JPY. Trading has been quiet lately which indicates impending
volatility. Watch for a surge in U.S. equities to trigger a quick
rally back to 91.61 over the near-term.
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