The EUR USD is trading higher this morning, but still
struggling with a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2345. Regaining this price
will be the key to igniting a surge to the upside.
At this time, last weekâ€™s reversal bottom at 1.2143 is still
holding with what appears to be a support base being built. This is actually
positive action because the bigger the support base, the higher the market can
go if there is renewed buying interest.
Shorts are clearly in control of the Euro at this time, but
they donâ€™t seem to be pounding the currency at current levels. These traders
remain poised to drive this market lower, provided there is fresh news to which
to react. Earlier in the week, the Euro sold off on news that the Spanish
government had taken over an ailing bank. On Wednesday, the Euro weakened on
rumors that China
was readying to sell Euro-denominated bonds. Both events failed to trigger a
new low in the Euro. This indicates that there may be a stopper in the market
or that hedge funds and large institutions are beginning to prefer selling
rallies rather than weakness.
Continue to look for downside pressure to remain on the Euro
over the long-run, but watch how this market reacts as it nears the low at
1.2143. If selling subsides and the Euro regains 1.2345, then look for a strong
short-covering rally to develop. Keep in mind, however, that the main trend
will remain down until the last swing top at 1.2671 is violated.
Easing tensions in the Euro Zone are helping to boost demand
for higher risk assets. Since last week, the Euro has been trying to form a
bottom but has been met by both fundamental and technical obstacles in the
process. On Wednesday, rumors that China was re-evaluating its
Euro-denominated bond portfolio sent the single-currency lower along with crude
oil and stock indices. Overnight trading was another story however.
Last night Chinaâ€™s
foreign exchange reserves manager denied a news report that it was considering
the sale of some of its holdings of Euro-denominated bonds.This helped the Euro rebound, sending the
Dollar lower against most currency-linked commodities. With the Dollar trading
lower, demand for higher risk assets rose.
Stronger demand for higher yielding assets is helping to
drive up the commodity-linked Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars
while pressuring the lower-yielding Japanese Yen.
The AUD USD is trading higher this morning, underpinned by
the stronger global equity markets. The charts indicate that there is plenty of
room to the upside with a possible retracement to .8727 to .8883 likely over
The NZD USD has confirmed the closing price reversal bottom
at .6560. The daily chart indicates that this market could retrace back to
.6942 over the near-term.
Strong crude oil is helping to pressure the USD CAD. Once
again this market has rejected the former top at 1.0738. Downside momentum is
building which could drive this market to 1.0481 to 1.0394 over the near-term.
Increased demand for higher yielding assets is helping to
boost the USD JPY. Trading has been quiet lately which indicates impending
volatility. Watch for a surge in U.S. equities to trigger a quick
rally back to 91.61 over the near-term.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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