Easing tensions in the Euro Zone are helping to boost demand
for higher risk assets. Since last week, the Euro has been trying to form a
bottom but has been met by both fundamental and technical obstacles in the
process. On Wednesday, rumors that China was re-evaluating its
Euro-denominated bond portfolio sent the single-currency lower along with crude
oil and stock indices. Overnight trading was another story however.
Last night Chinaâ€™s
foreign exchange reserves manager denied a news report that it was considering
the sale of some of its holdings of Euro-denominated bonds.This helped the Euro rebound, sending the
Dollar lower against most currency-linked commodities. With the Dollar trading
lower, demand for higher risk assets rose.
stock indices are trading sharply higher this morning after regaining all of
its loss from Wednesday. Earlier in the week, a closing price reversal bottom
was formed in the June E-mini S&P 500 at 1036.75. This reversal bottom was
confirmed on Wednesday but the lack of follow-through to the upside and the
news about Chinaâ€™s
concerns about the Euro encouraged traders to take profits after a huge rally.
Overnight, the E-mini S&P 500 regained its composure and
rallied sharply higher, taking out Wednesdayâ€™s high in the process. With
conditions in the Euro Zone apparently stabilizing, investors are shifting
their attention to the strong U.S.
economic data. This is helping to drive stock indices higher. Expectations are
that this trend should continue throughout the day.
Technically, the June E-mini S&P is poised to drive
higher. Upside momentum is building which should take this contract to at least
1105.75 over the short-run and perhaps to 1122.00 if conditions continue to
improve. There is one obstacle at 1100.75 this morning, but once this level is
overcome, the market is likely to surge.
One problem with the stock market lately has been the lack
of follow-through buying following strong overnight surges. It seems the Asian
and European traders have been getting the jump on U.S. investors. This has been
indicated by the lack of follow-through to the upside following strong
openings. If buyers fail to chase the market higher this morning, look for an
early session break, followed by a drive higher into the close. This pattern
will indicate there is real demand taking place for equities.
September Crude Oil is also the recipient of stronger demand
this morning due to the strengthening Euro. The surge overnight has helped make
69.62 a new main bottom. Based on the longer term range of 92.18 to 69.62, a
new retracement zone has been formed at 80.88 to 83.54. This is the next
potential upside target over the short-run. The main trend remains down, but
the chart indicates plenty of room to the upside.
Holding above a key 50% level at 72.16 and more
short-covering in the Euro and the commodity-linked currencies will help give
crude oil a boost also.
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