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Thursday May 27, 2010 - 15:34:44 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Thursday, May 27, 2010 11:24:26 AM

 US Market Update

Dow +193 S&P +24 NASDAQ +57

***Economic Data***
- (GE) German May
CPI - Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.1% prior
- (GE) Germany May Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (GE) Germany May Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (BR) Brazil Apr Unemployment Rate: 7.3% v 7.5%e
- (US) Q1 Advance
GDP Q/Q Annualized: 3.0% v 3.4%e; Personal Consumption: 3.5% v 3.8%e
- (US) Q1 Advanced
GDP Price Index: 1.0% v 0.9%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.6%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 460K v 455Ke; Continuing Claims: 4.607m v 4.613Me
- 9:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): 5.3B v -1.4Be; Primary Budget Balance: 19.8B v 15.0Be; Net Debt to
GDP ratio: 42.2% v 42.2%e

- China has primed markets with confidence this morning, denying a report in the FT yesterday that it was reviewing its holdings of European debt. In multiple official comments out overnight, Chinese officials took pains to reassure that there has been no change in the country's process of FX reserve diversification and reiterated that
Europe remains a major investment market for China. These comments have helped investors get over yet another disappointing weekly jobless claims report, with claims moving in the wrong direction for the second week in a row. Also, the second reading of the Q1 US GDP data was somewhat soft, missing estimates by a hair. The yen is trading off hand in hand with the higher risk appetite, with USD/JPY and AUD/JPY crosses pushing out to fresh highs which was subsequently followed by highs in US equity markets. The euro roller coaster ride continues, with EUR/USD right in the middle of its range from the last two days, around 1.2280. Note that Fed Gov Bullard said this morning that the EU bailout has bought governments time and that if there is to be debt restructuring from EU crisis, it would probably be years away. Front month crude is up a solid $2.50, to trade above the $74 handle in mid morning trading. Money is coming out of bonds once again as investors are more willing to take on risk. The US long bond is off 2 points in the cash market driving the yield up to 4.21% while the 10-year benchmark his above 3.3%.

- The leading
US bank stocks opened at or above yesterday's opening levels. Note that the US Treasury stated yesterday after the close that it has sold 20% of its stake in Citigroup; shares of Citi surged 5% before the open before trading off a bit. The Administration reiterated that it is not interested in seeing the Lincoln amendment remain in the overall financial regulatory overhaul legislation, raising hopes the provision, which would require banks to spin off derivative desks, will not make it into the final bill. There were some cautious comments on Goldman out overnight: The New York Times reported that Goldman's ongoing troubles are making some of their wealthy clients uneasy, with wealth managers reportedly now more open to jumping ship. The FT also reported about Goldman's sale of $1.25B in 10-year notes yesterday, as the 280 bps spread over Treasuries were much higher than the 175 bps spread seen two months ago.

- Both AIG and the UK's Prudential PLC are up sharply following more press speculation that AIG's $35B sale of its giant AIA insurance unit to Prudential could fall apart. Prudential denied the reports. Note that there have been multiple skeptical press articles about the viability of the deal over the last several days.
AIG is near session highs +6%, while Prudential's ADR PUK is up 8% in early trading. US discount names Costco and Big Lots are headed in different directions, with COST up 6% and heading higher, while BIG is down 3% at session lows. Costco was more or less in line with expectations, on very strong comps. Big Lots was also in line, although investors evidently expected more. Shares of Tiffany are up 7% after the firm beat expectation and raised its 2010 outlook.

- The USD recovered a good majority of its earlier European losses on Q1 GDP and initial claims data. USD/CAD has moved off its worst levels on reports that a US-based think tank saw the Bank of Canada leaving interest rates unchanged at its Jun 1st policy meeting.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:15 US Treasury's Wolin
- 13:00 (US) US Treasury to sell $31B in 7-year notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Supermarket sales Y/Y: No est v 11.9% prior
- 15:00 (EU) OECD Jun Euro Zone Economic Outlook
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank interest rate decision: Expected to maintain the Overnight Lending rate at 3.00%



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