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Friday May 28, 2010 - 00:07:29 GMT
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U.S. Dollar could be Forming Major Top

The U.S. Dollar traded sharply lower on Thursday, giving the first indication in weeks that the event driven rally may be coming to an end. Pressure was on the Dollar all day led by the strong turnaround in the Euro. Additional pressure came from increased interest in stocks and commodities. Technically, overbought conditions also contributed to the Dollar’s weakness. The current chart pattern suggests the formation of a possible double-top with a confirmation set to take place when this index takes out the last main bottom at 85.33.


Easing tensions in the Euro Zone helped to boost demand for higher risk assets on Thursday. Since last week, the Euro has been trying to form a bottom but has been met by both fundamental and technical obstacles in the process. On Wednesday, rumors that China was re-evaluating its Euro-denominated bond portfolio sent the single-currency lower along with crude oil and stock indices. Overnight trading was another story however.


Wednesday night China’s foreign exchange reserves manager denied a news report that it was considering the sale of some of its holdings of Euro-denominated bonds.  This helped the Euro rebound, sending the Dollar lower against most currency-linked commodities. With the Dollar trading lower, demand for higher risk assets rose. 


Stronger demand for higher yielding assets also helped to drive up the commodity-linked Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars while pressuring the lower-yielding Japanese Yen.


The EUR USD was firm all day. This morning’s rally drove the Euro into a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2345. Additional resistance was coming in at a downtrending angle at 1.2371. Regaining both of these prices could trigger a further rally to the 50% price at 1.2407. 


Regaining the retracement zone is the first step in the bottoming process for the Euro. The next step will be crossing a mains swing top. At this time the main trend remains down until the last swing top at 1.2671 is violated.


The GBP USD moved higher and away from the support base it has been building over the last five days. Based on the short-term range of 1.5391 to 1.4229, traders should look for a near-term retracement to 1.4810 to 1.4947. A more optimistic view of the financial situation in the Euro Zone and acceptance of some of the proposed austerity measures by the newly formed U.K. government are acting as catalysts for the current developing strength.


The USD CHF traded weaker after confirming its closing price reversal top at 1.1695. Downside momentum is building which could drive this market into the retracement zone at 1.1309 to 1.1218. A easing of pressure on the Euro is helping to trigger the rally in the Swiss Franc. Traders feel that a rally in the Euro will allow the Swiss National Bank to ease up on its constant intervention in the market.


Increased demand for higher yielding assets helped to boost the USD JPY. Trading has been quiet lately indicating impending volatility. Watch for a surge in U.S. equities to trigger a quick rally back to 91.61 over the near-term. As investor appetite for risk grows they begin to favor a strategy which involves borrowing in Japanese Yen to buy other higher risk assets such as U.S. stocks. In order to do this, they must sell the Yen and buy the Dollar.


Strong crude oil helped to pressure the USD CAD. Once again this market rejected the former top at 1.0738. Downside momentum drove this market to a 50% level at 1.0481. If momentum continues to grow and crude oil and stocks continue to rise, then look for further weakness to 1.0394 over the near-term.


The AUD USD soared throughout the day on increased investor appetite for risk. Stronger global equity markets were the catalysts behind Thursday’s. The daily chart indicates that there is plenty of room to the upside with a possible retracement to .8727 to .8883 likely over the short-run.  Resistance may come in tomorrow at a downtrending Gann angle at .8707.


The NZD USD confirmed its closing price reversal bottom at .6560 from May 25th. The daily chart indicates that this market could retrace back to .6942 over the near-term.


Barring any fresh bearish news out of the Euro Zone or any threats from China to stop investing in Euro bonds, it looks as if the much awaited profit-taking break in the U.S. Dollar has begun. Although the main trend is up, it isn’t going to take much to weaken the Dollar. Extremely oversold conditions in foreign currencies and nervous short traders could turn the heat up on the Dollar rather quickly.


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