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Friday May 28, 2010 - 00:07:57 GMT
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June E-mini Poised to Test 50% Retracement Level at 1105.75

U.S. equity markets finished sharply higher and are now in positions to test major retracements zones which will indicate whether the uptrend is getting ready to resume or if a new bear market is forming. The fact that investors were willing to buy strength on Thursday could be a clue that fresh money is coming into the market.


The June E-mini S&P 500 closed in a position to test a key retracement zone at 1105.75 to 1122.00. The June E-mini NASDAQ is testing 1867.75 overnight with 1894.50 its next upside objective. Finally the June E-mini Dow is setup for a further rally to a 50% retracement level at 10337.


The catalyst behind the rise in equity markets beside short-covering is optimism about the U.S. economy and an easing of tensions in the Euro Zone.


The surge in equity markets pressured the September Treasury Bonds on Thursday. Investors liquidated flight-to-safety positions as demand rose for higher yielding assets. The daily chart indicates a potential retracement to 119’22. Look for more downside pressure as long as investors continue to be attracted to stocks.


The easing of tensions in the Euro Zone and greater demand for risk coupled with oversold conditions helped to drive September Crude Oil higher. A new main bottom has been formed at 69.62. Regaining and holding above a 50% level at 72.16 also helped to underpin this market. Upside momentum is strong, but the main trend remains down. There is an outside chance that this market may rally to 80.88 over the near-term.


August Gold traded lower after failing to take out a .618 retracement level at $1219.50. This move completes a retracement of the $1251.40 to $1168.00 range. Despite the falling Dollar, hedge position liquidation is pressuring gold. A break under $1209.70 is likely to trigger an acceleration to the downside.


The U.S. Dollar traded sharply lower on Thursday, giving the first indication in weeks that the event driven rally may be coming to an end. Pressure was on the Dollar all day led by the strong turnaround in the Euro. Additional pressure came from increased interest in stocks and commodities. Technically, overbought conditions also contributed to the Dollar’s weakness. The current chart pattern suggests the formation of a possible double-top with a confirmation set to take place when this index takes out the last main bottom at 85.33.


Easing tensions in the Euro Zone helped to boost demand for higher risk assets on Thursday. Since last week, the Euro has been trying to form a bottom but has been met by both fundamental and technical obstacles in the process. On Wednesday, rumors that China was re-evaluating its Euro-denominated bond portfolio sent the single-currency lower along with crude oil and stock indices. Overnight trading was another story however.


Wednesday night China’s foreign exchange reserves manager denied a news report that it was considering the sale of some of its holdings of Euro-denominated bonds.  This helped the Euro rebound, sending the Dollar lower against most currency-linked commodities. With the Dollar trading lower, demand for higher risk assets rose. 


Stronger demand for higher yielding assets also helped to drive up the commodity-linked Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars while pressuring the lower-yielding Japanese Yen.


The June Euro was firm all day. This morning’s rally drove the Euro into a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2345. Additional resistance was coming in at a downtrending angle at 1.2371. Regaining both of these prices could trigger a further rally to the 50% price at 1.2407. 


Regaining the retracement zone is the first step in the bottoming process for the Euro. The next step will be crossing a mains swing top. At this time the main trend remains down until the last swing top at 1.2671 is violated.


The June British Pound moved higher and away from the support base it has been building over the last five days. Based on the short-term range of 1.5391 to 1.4229, traders should look for a near-term retracement to 1.4810 to 1.4947. A more optimistic view of the financial situation in the Euro Zone and acceptance of some of the proposed austerity measures by the newly formed U.K. government are acting as catalysts for the current developing strength.


The June Swiss Franc traded higher after confirming its closing price reversal bottom at .8562. Upside momentum is building which could drive this market into the retracement zone at .8862 to .8933. A easing of pressure on the Euro is helping to trigger the rally in the Swiss Franc. Traders feel that a rally in the Euro will allow the Swiss National Bank to ease up on its constant intervention in the market.


Increased demand for higher yielding assets helped to pressure the June Japanese Yen. Trading has been quiet lately indicating impending volatility. Watch for a surge in U.S. equities to trigger a quick break back to 1.0954 to 1.0854 over the near-term. As investor appetite for risk grows they begin to favor a strategy which involves borrowing in Japanese Yen to buy other higher risk assets such as U.S. stocks. In order to do this, they must sell the Yen and buy the Dollar.


Strong crude oil helped to drive the June Canadian Dollar higher. Once again this market rejected the former bottom at .9293. Upside momentum drove this market to a 50% level at .9552. If momentum continues to grow and crude oil and stocks continue to rise, then look for further strength to .9632 over the near-term.


Barring any fresh bearish news out of the Euro Zone or any threats from China to stop investing in Euro bonds, it looks as if the much awaited profit-taking break in the U.S. Dollar has begun. Although the main trend is up, it isn’t going to take much to weaken the Dollar. Extremely oversold conditions in foreign currencies and nervous short traders could turn the heat up on the Dollar rather quickly.


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AA JP- Bank of Japan
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