European Market Update: China reiterates concerns over sustainability of global recovery (Trade the News)
Friday, May 28, 2010
European Market Update:
***Economic Data*** - (FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -0.2% v 5.7% prior - (GE) Germany Apr Import Price Index M/M: 2.0% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 7.9% v 7.1%e - (SZ) Swiss Apr Trade Balance (CHF): 2.0B v 1.7B prior; Exports M/M: 3.1% v 0.8% prior; Imports M/M: 0.8% v -0.8% prior - (SP) Spain May Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7%e - (NO) Norway May Unemployment Rate: 2.7% v 2.8%e - (DE) Denmark Apr Unemployment Rate SA: 4.1% v 4.2%e - (SW) Sweden Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 1.5%e - (SW) Sweden Apr Household Lending Y/Y: 9.2% v 9.3% prior - (SW) Sweden Apr Retail sales M/M: -0.2% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: -1.2% v 1.5%e - (NO) Norway Mar AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.5%e - (NO) Norway Q1 Manufacturing Wage Index Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.8% prior - (IT) Italy Apr PPI M/M: 1.2% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.2% v 1.7% prior - (PO) Portugal May Consumer Confidence: -38.3 v -36.7 prior; Economic Climate: -0.1 v -0.3 prior - (BE) Belgium Mat CPI M/M: 0.4v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.8% prior - (SZ) Swiss May KOF Leading Indicator: 2.16 v 2.02e
Fixed income Auctions: ***(IT) Italy Auction Results: - Sold â‚¬4B in new Jun 2013 BTP; Avg yield 2%; Bid-to-cover 1.52x - Sold â‚¬3.88B in 2020 BTP; Avg yield 4.07% v 4.09% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.4x v 1.39x prior - Sold â‚¬1.4B Mar 2017 CCT; Avg yield 2.32% v 1.63% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.5x v 1.76x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European bourses opened higher for the third straight session in continued momentum from the e US and Asian rallies. The momentum continued to build from Thursday comments from Chinese Gov't authorities after they expressed confidence in its European investments. FTSE100 opened 0.43% at 5,217. DAX30 also gained 0.43% at 5,962 and CAC40 rose to 0.79% to 3,355 points. Markets slipped briefly in negative territory but recuperated again during the session. Trading remained volatile in thinning conditions ahead of US and UK banking holidays with little impact from spare European economic releases.
- In Individual Stocks: Royal Dutch Shell [RDS.A]: Confirmed acquisition of subsidiaries of East Resources and its private equity Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and its advisors Jefferies & Company as reported by press. The transaction is valued at $4.7B cash. // Astra Zeneca [AZN.UK]: Released results for of the HORIZON II Phase III study evaluating RECENTIN (cediranib) for the first-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Cediranib met the co-primary endpoint of improving progression-free survival (PFS) but showed no improvement in overall survival. // Severn Trent [SVT.UK]: Reported FY pretaz profit and revenue of respectively Â£334.4M and Â£1.7B both comparing favorably to year-ago figures of Â£167 and Â£1.6B. // 888 [888.UK]: Revised its outlook for the remainder of the year and now expected profit to be significantly lower than previous market expectations. // British Petroleum [BP.UK]: Provided its daily update on Gulf of Mexico and stated that the "Top Kill" operation is continuing and that the full procedure could be extended to another 24 to 48 hours. However, given that this procedure has not been attempted at such depths, its ultimate result remained uncertain // Prudential [PRU.UK]: Responded to press speculations in regards to AIG's negotiations and confirmed that the talks were continuing that could lead or not to a change of terms. There had been various press speculations which indicated that Prudential might negotiate a new price for AIA or the deal might even fall through due to shareholders' pressure. Lanxness [LXS.GE]: Following its AGM Lanxness confirmed its FY10 outlook of adjusted EBITDA of â‚¬650-700M // Electrocomponents [ECM.UK]: Reported FY pretax profit of Â£74.4M above estimates of Â£73M and Revenues of Â£972.6M slightly below estimates if Â£973M. Noted that the revenue and profit impacted by economic conditions, particularly in the first half.
- Speakers: China Fin Min reiterated the view That China would continue its "proactive" fiscal policy. The official noted that the sovereign debt issue could affect economic recovery, sees many difficulties in domestic economy***France Labor Minister Woerth commented that any new retirement age had not been decided yet but noted that any changes would be announced between June 15-20th period. ***Spain's Socialist Worker's party spokesperson: Spain's labour reform discussions not going well *** S&P's Fernandez commented that Spain faced implementation risk concerning austerity measures but the program was moving in the right direction *** United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Euro currency depreciation was natural and would help the euro zone *** ECB's Bonello commented that the : European economic recovery was constrained by the deleveraging process underway in both the banking and private sectors *** Poland Central Banker Chojna commented that it sought to stabilize Zloty currency and that recent weakness was monetary. She added that establishing a target range for the Zloty would be unhelpful for policy . She forecasted 2010 GDP growth between 3.1-3.4% as possible and saw an improving economic outlook for Poland. *** China Premier Wen commeted during his visit to Seoul that China condemned all acts against peace and stability on the Korea peninsula and would not 'harbor' when deciding who was to blame over sinking of ship
-Currencies/Fixed income: Month-end flows ahead of US and UK banking holidays provided a reprieve for the Euro. The move above 1.2350 in Early Europe provided a string of stops to be elected in the pair with German name and U.K. clearer were good buyers on behalf of a fund name up through 1.2450 area before stabilizing.
- Geo-Political: French protestors took to the streets demonstrating against proposed government legislation over retirement age. Figures varied with union officials claiming more than 800,000 participants, while police estimates were fewer than 400,000. Disruptions to the service sectors were minimal and most operations, such as public transportation and air traffic, were operating near normal levels. *** Late election results in Thirsk and Malton, located in north England, awarded the final seat to the Conservative party bringing the final count in the Commons to 307. The Conservative candidate Anne McIntosh won a wide majority of the votes at 20,167 v 8,886 for the next placed Liberal Democrat candidate Howard Keal. Note the postponement was due to the death of one of its candidates.
In the papers: Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard commented on Bank of Spain order on lenders to set aside 30% of reserves. The article noted that the new rules target "cajas" whose mortgage holdings represent the majority of property debt offered during real estate boom. The the new requirements to "force lenders to write down bad debts within a year instead of stretching out the pain for up to six years." Notes that no Spanish bank has until now raised funds in the capital markets. Article suggestedthat the Bank of Spain was "opening a Pandora's Box" given the lack of clarity over how many lenders may be insolvent based on marked-to-market loan accounting.
***Notes/Observations: - China reiterates its concern over sustainability of global growth - WSJ article noting that Greece might still have to restructure debt. - Mixed economic data out of Japan: unemployment rate rises, inflation falls, retail sales rise fastest since 1997. - Japan Fin Min Kan: Some G20 countries are paying attention to curencies. Next week's G20 will discuss EU fiscal problems and financial regulation. - French protestors took to the streets demonstrating against proposed government legislation over retirement age from 60.
***Looking Ahead*** - 7:00 (BR) Brazil May FGV Inflation M/M: 1.3%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 4.3%e v 2.9% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Q1 Current Account (BOP): -$7.5Be v -$9.8B prior - 8:30 (US) Apr Personal Income: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior; Personal Spending: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior - 8:30 (US) Apr PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.3% prior; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 1.9%e v 2.0% prior - 9:00 (CL) Chile Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: -7.3%e v -17.4% prior; Industrial sales Y/Y: -2.5%e v -8.9% prior - 9:00 (CL) Chile Apr Copper Production: No est v 451.1K tons - 9:45 (US) May Chicago Purchasing Manager: 61.3e v 63.8 prior - 9:55 (US) May Final University of Michigan Confidence: 73.3e v 73.3 prior - 10:00 (US) May NAPM - Milwaukee: 64.0e v 66.0 prior - 12:00 (FR) France Apr Net Change Jobseekers: 3.0Ke v -6.6K prior; Total Jobseekers: No est v 2.66M prior - 15:30 (MX) Mexico Apr YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v 11.3B prior - (PU) Peru Q1 GDP Y/Y: 6.1%e v 3.4% prior
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