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Friday May 28, 2010 - 14:12:18 GMT
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U.S. Dollar Trading Mixed; Euro Settling into Range

The U.S. Dollar is trading mixed against most major currencies ahead of the U.S. three-day week-end. The Dollar was under pressure early in the session after the Euro and British Pound surged in continuation of Thursday’s big rally. Since then it has settle into a range versus both currencies. Firm equity markets are helping the Dollar/Yen post a modest gain. Greater demand for risk has the Dollar trading lower versus the Canadian and New Zealand Dollars while slightly lower against the Australian Dollar.

 

News that China denied it was reviewing its holdings of Euro sovereign bonds helped to reverse a sell-off in the Euro on Thursday. The Euro was also helped by China’s reaffirmation of its long-term strategy of diversifying currency holdings away from the Dollar.

 

The Euro was also buoyed by the news that Spain’s minority Socialist government won parliamentary backing yesterday for its austerity program by a single vote. Spain continues to push toward cutting its budget deficit in an effort to regain market confidence weakened by the Euro Zone debt crisis that spread from Greece.

 

Although the main trend remains down until the EUR USD crosses the last swing top at 1.2671, the chart pattern suggests further upside is likely today if the market can establish support inside a retracement zone at 1.2407 to 1.2345. The downtrending Gann angle at 1.2542 is the only obstacle stopping the Euro from reaching the retracement zone today.

 

The GBP USD is trading slightly lower this morning after a slight rise overnight. The current chart pattern suggests that a rally to 1.4810 is likely over the near-term. Investors have been regaining confidence in the British Pound following moves by the new government to approve austerity measures designed to balance the budget and cut government debt.

 

Stronger equity markets could help drive the USD JPY higher. Increased appetite for risk is likely to drive up demand for the carry trade which should keep the pressure on the Japanese Yen. The charts indicate that 91.61 is the next likely upside target.

 

Higher crude oil and stocks are helping to pressure the USD CAD. Technically the Dollar/CAD broke through a 50% price level at 1.0481 overnight, setting up a potential break to the next price target at 1.0394.  The Bank of Canada is set to meet on June 1. Speculators are looking for the BoC to hike its benchmark interest rate.

 

Easing tensions in the Euro Zone are helping to drive up demand for higher yielding currencies to the benefit of the AUD USD and NZD USD. The chart pattern suggests the Aussie is on path for a test of .8727 over the near-term. Upside momentum should take the Kiwi to at least .6942.

 

 

 

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