European Market Update: ECB's Trichet says Euro is a credible currency and keeping its value in 'remarkable fashion'; India's GDP accelerated in recent quarter (Trade the News)
Monday, May 31, 2010
European Market Update: ECB's Trichet says Euro is a credible currency and keeping its value in 'remarkable fashion'; India's GDP accelerated in recent quarter
***Economic Data*** - (IN) India Q1 GDP Y/Y: 8.6% v 8.6%e - (JP) Japan Apr Housing Starts Y/Y: 0.6% v 6.6%e (first positive YoY reading since Nov 2008); Annualized Housing Starts: 793K840Ke v 854K prior - (SA) South Africa Apr Private Sector Credit Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.4%e - (FI) Finland Mar Final Trade Balance: -â‚¬266M v -â‚¬285M prior - (HU) Hungary Apr Producer Prices M/M: 1.6% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.1% v -2.0%e - (TU) Turkey Apr Trade Balance (TRY): -5.5B v -5.6B - (SW) Sweden May Consumer Confidence: 18.8 v 18.3e; Economic Tendency: 110.0 v 104.6 prior; Manufacturer Confidence: 3 v 0e - (DE) Denmark Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -1.0%e - (TH) Thailand Apr Current Account: -$423M v -$355Me; Overall Trade Balance: $3.7B v $3.1B prior; Total Trade Balance: -$190M v $1.1B prior - (TH) Thailand Apr Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 21.3% v 23.9%e; Total Capacity Utilization: 62.3% v 75.0% prior - (TH) Thailand Apr Business Sentiment: 46.0 v 55.7 prior - (GE) German VDMA: Apr Plant & Equipment Orders Y/Y: +36% - (SP) Spain Mar Current Account: -â‚¬4.3B v -â‚¬6.6B prior - (EU) Euro Zone Apr M3 Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.3%e; M3 Three-month Avg: -0.2% v -0.2%e - (NO) Norway Apr Retail Sales Volume M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -5.1% v 13.3% prior - (NO) Norway Apr Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 4.0% v 3.9%e - (PD) Poland Q1 GDP Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.1%e - (HK) Hong Kong Apr M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 12.8% v 9.7% prior - (HK) Hong Kong Apr Gov't Budget (HKD): -0.2B v -21.1B prior - (EU) Euro Zone May Business Climate: 0.34 v 0.20; Consumer Confidence: -18 v -18e; Industrial Confidence: -6 v -7e; Economic Confidence: 98.4 v 101.6e; Services Confidence: 3 v 6e - (EU) Euro Zone May Preliminary CPI Estimate Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e - (IT) Italy May Preliminary CPI (NIC Incl Tobacco) M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.6%e - (IT) Italy May Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e - (IC) Iceland Apr Final Trade Balance (ISK): 6.3B v 6.3B prior - (GR) Greece Mar Retail Sales Y/Y: 14.9% v 4.5% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European markets expressed a degree of calmness following the Spanish sovereign downgrade on Friday by Fitch. The US and UK closed were closed for holidays. France official kept the austerity theme on the front burner after stating that France must either cut its spending or lose its "AAA" sovereign rating. The bourses that are open were in the lower portion of the session range and putting in a mixed performance ahead of the NY morning. France's CAC40 was lower -0.25% at 3,506.28 compared to Friday's close of 3,516. DAX was firmer at 5,963, up around 0.3%.
- In Individual Stocks: Strabag [STR.AS]: Reported Q1 Net loss of â‚¬128.7M slightly worse than estimates of a loss of â‚¬126M. EBIT loss at â‚¬149.9M was better than estimates of a loss of â‚¬160M. Revenue was â‚¬1.79B, also lower than estimates of â‚¬1.9B. Company reaffirmed outlook of of stable output and margins. Attributed the revenue decline to harsh winter. // Seadrill [SDRL.NO]: Will make a mandatory offer of NOK40.50/shr for Scorpion. This represents an increase of the original price of NOK36/shr. Company increased its stake to 50.1% by buying an additional 9.07Mshares
- Speakers: ECB's Trichet stated that the central bank's bond purchasing was strictly targeted at correcting malfunctioning of markets and should not be used to circumvent budgetary policy. Fiscal retrenchments are crucial for improvement of current market troubles and that the bond purchasing program must not be confused with quantitative easing. Trichet added that he did not see a debt restructuring in Greece and noted that there was no plan B for country. On the Euro currency he stated that the currency's value was essential for investor confidence and it was keeping its value in 'remarkable fashion'. EMU countries have collegial responsibility for Euro but some countries have set a bad example for fiscal discipline. He supported EU plan to strengthen fiscal rules ***ECB's Draghi commented that the Euro Area budget adjustments needed to be implemented more quickly and the EU needed a stronger Maastricht Stability Pact. He stated that ECB interest rate policy had been 'strongly expansionary' and that the ECB must halt the bond purchase scheme 'as quickly as possible'. The attacks on Euro currency was targeted at its weakest members and called for the EU to implement more political and budgetary union ***BoJ Gov Shirakawa reiterated the view that Bank of Japan to maintain an extremely accommodative policy . He noted that expanding bank balance sheet would not solve deflation or help push prices up. He added that excessive public support might hurt productivity and would set upper limit on new lending facility. Lastly he noted that Greece might become a fiscal threat if situation worsened ***ECB's Nowotny commented that the ECB bond purchase program did not break 'taboo' and reiterated that he saw no threat of inflation nor anticipated deflation *** Moody's reaffirmed South Korea's "A1" sovereign ratings and stated the country was in a strong position in face of rising challenges. It noted that South Korea's geopolitical defenses and economic fundamentals should prove strong enough to withstand a period of heightened tensions. Overall, recent shocks -- including the sinking and the deaths of 46 South Korean sailors near the maritime border between both countries had no adverse effects for South Korea on the issues of debt affordability or finance-ability***India's Fin Sec Chawla stated that inflation remained a concern and did not see change in the government's borrowing policy. ***China's PBoC stated that it would tighten lending to industries with excess capacity. Bank branches cannot approve expansion to companies with excess capacity and would restrict lending to the energy-intensive industry and provide support for energy-efficient companies ***Bank of Spain (BOS) commented in a monthly bulletin that consumer confidence to recover in Q2 but noted that impact of market tension and budget cuts remained unclear ***Moody's commented on China and noted that the country's challenges was to manage trade friction. It noted China's fiscal performance had improved in recent years and its Gov't debt was comparatively low *** Sweden NEIR stated that the European austerity measurewould likely to weigh upon economic growth in region at some point. The think tank affirmed its 2010 GDP growth estimate at over 3% but stated it might revise down GDP for later periods due to EU austerity measures ***
- Currencies/Fixed income: Thin liquidity conditions prevailed and the major pairs were little changed from their opening levels seen in Asia. The European impact of its austerity measures remain the dominant theme highlighted by the French budget minister weekend comments that it would be a "stretch" for France to keep its "AAA" sovereign rating without some tough budget decisions. The EUR/US hovering around the 1.23 area. The JPY was a touch weaker over the fragile political union of the ruling coalition. The USD/JPY at 91.50, up about 25 pips from the Tokyo open.
- Geo-Political: Two people died and 30 were wounded as Israeli Navy raided an international convoy of ships carrying humanitarian supplies to Gaza strip. Three of the "Free Gaza" flotilla were flying under the Turkish flag which prompted harsh comments from Turkish officials stating Israel may suffer irreparable consequences. Israeli minister also stated that this may further strain the relationship between the two countries. *** Out of South Korea the military reported that thousands of troops were holding war games near the border.*** Japan's Social Democratic Party may pull out of the coalition with ruling party; a decision which was considered as "regrettable" by PM Hatoyama. Meanwhile, over 60% of Japanese voters would like the PM to resign and 19% of voters would prefer the opposition party LDP to return to power.
***Notes/Observations: - US and UK markets holidays - Currency dealers watching the JPY price action following the coalition split within the ruling party - France Budget Min: maintaining AAA credit rating might be a stretch without tough budget decisions. - ECB members out in force on need for fiscal disipline - British Chamber of Commerce: UK at risk of double dip. Fiscal cuts should wait. - China PM Wen: Second global downturn possible but China's growth remains on track.
***Looking Ahead*** - (PO) Portugal Apr Industrial Production M/M: % v 7.2% prior; Y/Y: % v 5.8% prior - (PO) Portugal Apr Retail Sales M/M: % v -2.8% prior; Y/Y: 5 v 0.7% prior - 8:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations for the Base Rate to remain at 5.25% (roughly 33% chance for a 25bps rate cut) - 8:30 (CL) Chile Q1 Quarterly GDP Annualized: 5.9%e v 5.0% prior - 8:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Minutes - 8:30 (CA) Canada Mar Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Apr Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.2%e v -0.4% prior; Raw Material Price Index M/M: 1.4%e v 0.8% prior - 9:00 (CL) Chile Apr unemployment Rate: 9.2%e v 9.0% prior - 9:00 (BE) Belgium Apr Budget Balance YTD: No est v -â‚¬11.2B prior - 12:00 (CO) Colombia Apr Unemployment Rate: 12.5%e v 12.3% prior - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v 18.1% prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 9 July 2018 AA 12:00 EZ- Draghi EU Parliament Testimony Tue 10 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 11 July 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 12 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 13 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.