Monday May 31, 2010 - 12:06:11 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 31-May-2010 - 1205 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.1562/65...Holding Short
R: 1.1600-30 / 1.1680-1700 / 1.1740
S: 1.1544 / 1.1500-1.1480 / 1.1450
The Support at the 55-MA on the 4-Hr chart (currently at 1.1544) is continuing to hold very well. However, a sharp upmove was not seen and Dollar-Swiss is trading in a very narrow range of 1.1440-85. Muted trading is expected to continue as the US markets are closed today on account of Memorial Day holiday. Our view continues to remain the same on the pair. While below 1.16, there are still chances of a break below 1.1480 and see a downmove 1.1450-14 in the coming sessions/days. On the upside Resistance is seen at 1.1600-20 region which might be tested if the immediate Support at 1.1544 (55-MA on the 4-hr chart) continues to hold.
Overall, though the broader picture continues to remain bullish for a rise towards 1.17-18, as of now the outlook is mixed since the current sideways move which is lasting for more than a week has raised the question as whether the rally will continue from the current levels or we will see a corrective dip to 1.1450-00 first, before further rise.
USD 10K Short at 1.1570, SL 1.1630 (down from 1.1660), TP 1.1470 (up from 1.1370)
As soon as the market trades 1.1520 trail SL to 1.1560
GBP-USD @ 1.4505/08...Support in the broad 1.4450-00 region
R: 1.4500-20 / 1.4545 / 1.4620-45
S: 1.4450 / 1.4400 / 1.4320-00
The Support in the broad 1.4450-00 region held very well during the day and Cable has bounced back from 1.4444. As mentioned earlier. we expect this 1.4450-00 Support region to continue to hold and might see a rise towards 1.4550-4600 once again in the coming sessions. On the downside a break below 1.44 is not looking likely now. However, if seen can pull the pair down towards 1.4320-00.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy GBP 10K at 1.4430, SL 1.4340, TP 1.4580
AUD-USD @ 0.8439/42...Support at 0.84
R: 0.8480-90 / 0.8570-086 / 0.8630-40
S: 0.8415-00 / 0.8365 / 0.8303
Aussie failed to see a strong break above 0.85 and has come off from the day's high of 0.8515. The broader bearish sentiment is intact and a break below 0.84 might pull it further down towards 0.8300-0.8250 in the coming sessions. However, if 0.84 holds, and the pair gains upside momentum, we might see a bounce back towards 0.8550-8600 in the coming sessions. As mentioned earlier 0.8570-0.8600 is a significant Resistance seen on the upside which is expected to hold if a sharp upmove breaking above 0.85 is seen.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell AUD 10k at 0.8560, SL 0.8650, TP Open
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