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USD/JPY Dollar's retreat from yesterday's high at 91.62 points to a possible minor top formation there (risk aversion has boosted the yen across the board) and the outlook in the near term is neutral to mildly bearish with potential for a downward correction to the previous support at 90.61, however, only a breach of the pivot at 89.82 would call for an end to the rebound from the May 20 low of 89.00 and see further losses to 89.40/50 ahead of a re-test of 89.00 later.
We will await a better trade setup before entering the market and on the upside, only above the resistance at 91.62 would extend the upmove from 91.62 (which is retracing the decline from 93.64) to 91.90/00.
USD/CHF The temporary top formation seen last week at 1.1696 continues to hold, keeping the outlook in the near term neutral to mildly bearish with potential for another corrective fall to take place (after the current minor b-wave bounce from 1.1481 is completed), below the support region of 1.1450-1.1481 would see further losses for the greenback to 1.1420 but a retracement level at 1.1361 is likely to contain the downside and be followed by a rebound later.
We will look to sell the dollar for this move and only a breach of the resistance at 1.1696 would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend from 0.9916, target further gains to 1.1742.
EUR/USD Euro has retreated from Friday's high of 1.2453 as concerns remain over the sovereign debt crisis brewing in euro and the double bottom formation at 1.2144/54 is in focus, as long as these support levels hold, further consolidation inside the broad range of 1.2144-1.2672 is likely for now, with potential for another rise to the region of 1.2453-1.2471 but the minor resistance at 1.2596 is expected to hold from here (defending the upper range).
We will look to enter a speculative long position on further weakness and only a sustained breach of 1.2144 would see the medium term downtrend bring eventual losses towards the 1.2000 level.
GBP/USD There is more consolidation likely to be seen in the near term after the retreat from Friday's high of 1.4611 but as this move is treated as a minor correction of the near term rise from the recent low of 1.4232, then the support region of 1.4409-1.4427 should continue to hold and a mildly bullish outlook prevails as cross trading flows support the pound, hence potential remains for gains to a confluence at 1.4638/44 and later 1.4720 (previous support) but the shorter term oscillators should be in overbought region on such move and the broader bearish outlook may re-assert itself later.
Our long position remains in play and only a firm breach of the hourly spike low at 1.4409 would switch the focus to a pivotal support at 1.4331 (a line of defence ahead of the low at 1.4232).
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