European Market Update: Risk aversion sentiment entrenched in all asset classes (Trade the News)
Tuesday, June 01, 2010
European Market Update: Risk aversion sentiment entrenched in all asset classes
***Economic Data*** - (IN) India Apr Trade Balance: -$10.4B v -$7.8B prior; Exports Y/Y: 36.2% v 54.0% prior; Imports Y/Y: 43.3% v 67.1% prior - (SZ) Swiss Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.8%e - (GE) Germany ILO Unemployment: 7.1% v 7.3% prior - (GE) Germany Apr Retail Sales M/M: 1.0% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -3.1% v -0.7%e - (SW) Sweden May PMI: 66.0 v 62.3e - (FR) France Apr Producer Prices M/M: 1.0% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 3.3%e - (IR) Ireland May NCB PMI: 54.1 v 51.0 prior - (TU) Turkey May Manufacturing PMI: 56.5 v 56.0 prior - (PD) Poland May Manufacturing PMI: 52.2 v 52.5 prior - (NO) Norway May PMI: 50.1 v 52.3e - (HU) Hungary may PMI: 49.6 v 51.6 prior; Frst reading below 50 since Dec 2009 - (SP) Spain May Manufacturing PMI: v 53.3 prior - (SZ) Swiss May SVME Purchasing Managers Index: 66.4 v 64.4e - (CZ) Czech May Manufacturing PMI: 57.6 v 57.3 prior - (DE) Denmark Apr Retail Sales M/M: -4.2% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: -7.1% v 8.1% prior - (IT) Italy May PMI Manufacturing: v 53.6e v 54.3 prior - (FR) France May Final PMI Manufacturing: 55.3v 56.2e - (GE) Germany May Final PMI Manufacturing: v 58.3e v 58.3 prior - (GE) Germany May Unemployment Change: -45K v -17Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 7.8%e - (EU) Euro Zone May Final PMI Manufacturing: 55.8 v 55.9e - (IT) Italy Apr Unemployment Rate: 8.9% v 8.9%e; Higest level since Dec 2001 - (GR) Greece May PMI Manufacturing: 41.8 v 43.6 prior; lowest reading since Apr 2009 - (UK) May PMI Manufacturing: 58.0 v 57.9e - (HK) Hong Kong Apr Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 15.6% v 16.8%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 12.4% v 15.5%e - (SA) South Africa May Kagiso PMI: 51.1 v 55.5e - (DE) Denmark May PMI: 48.5 v 51.6 prior - (EU) Euro Zone Apr Unemployment Rate: 10.1% v 10.0%e
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets opened the session lower, on concerns about write downs at European banks, the widening in the peripheral debt spreads and disappointing Chinese PMI data. Additionally, the more than 13% decline in shares of BP have weighed on the FTSE 100. The major bourses were down over 2% ahead of the NY morning. The Spain IBEX 35 index was lower by 3.3% at 9,055.
- In Individual Stocks: Ryanair [RYA.UK]: Reported FY10 adj profit and revenues of, respectively â‚¬319M and â‚¬2.99B, both slightly below estimates of â‚¬321M and â‚¬3B. Guided FY11 ajdusted profit to rise up to 10-15% to â‚¬350-375M, deemed conservative by the CEO. Company also would end the no dividend policy and will pay â‚¬0.34 in October. // VoestAlpine [VOE.AS]: Reported FY09/10 net of â‚¬186M, EBIT of â‚¬352M and Revenues of â‚¬8.4B. All figures were above estimates of Net â‚¬96M, EBIT â‚¬326M and Revenues of â‚¬8.4B. Company had limited visibility for H2 2011 but expected higher earnings and continuing improvement of operating result for H1 2010/2011. Guided FY11 EBIT to be higher than 2010 // AIG issued a statement saying it would maintain deal's original terms of a price at $35B in cash. Prudential responded that it would consider the position and said that it had proposed a revised price of $30B in cash and various securities. Prudential has been under shareholders' pressure to lower the price. // British Petroleum [BP.UK]: Provided daily update on oil spill. Stated that "top kill" operation had been ineffective in line with prior views. The company, in cooperation with the government will proceed to the next step, the deployment of the Lower Marine Riser Package (LMRP) Cap Containment System. Cost of the response to date is about $990M v $850M on May 27th. Operations to skim oil from the surface of the water have now recovered, in total, some 321,000 barrels (13.5 million gallons) of oily liquid // Northern Foods [NFDS.UK]: Reported FY09/10 profit and revenues of, respectively, Â£54.6M and Â£977M, comparing favorably to year-ago figures of Â£52.7M and Â£975.2M.
- Speakers: Fitch rating agency commented that policy response wass key for countries to keep their respective "AAA" sovereign ratings. On Spain, Fitch stated that the country's fiscal response was pretty strong but problems related to savings banks might limit credit *** Spain Labor Min Corbacho that Labor market reform discussions were in the in final stages and would be finalized by middle of next week at the latest. He noted that Spain to make an effort to avoid harming workers' rights and there were no plans to change existing open-ended job contracts. *** German Labor Min commented that the June unemployment rate was likely to decline MoM. **Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) commented that global uncertainty had increased but Swedish banks were well capitalized and well prepared. The central bank noted that loan losses were forecasted to be lower in coming periods versus their November view and now saw loan losses at SEK61B. The lower loan losses were a result of improvement in economy. It stated that losses from Baltic's were manageable and saw better prospects foir that region***Poland Fin Min Rostowski commented that the country's 2010 deficit remained to be below the planned PLN52.2B level despite the planned impact of PLN2B from recent floods ***Finland Fin Min commented that he expected to see continued significant write downs by European banks
-Currencies/Fixed income: Risk aversion flows was entrenched in all asset classes as the global situation remained fixated on the potential contagion effects from Europe. Dealers discussed an ECB report warning that banks within the Eurozone still might have to write off as much as â‚¬195B in bad loans over the next 18 months . Rumors swirled about the next sovereign downgrade after Fitch's action on Spain late Friday. Vague FX chatter re-circulated of possible sovereign downgrade rumors with France mention as a possible candidate and Italy thrown in there. The rumors were aided by weekend TV interview from France budget minister Baroin when he commented that France must carry our planned spending cuts to maintain its Sovereign "AAA" rating . EUR/USD pair his fresh four-year lows as it below 1.2110. The safe haven flows benefited spot gold, which continued find support on dips and remained above the $1,220 level/oz (still $30 away from fresh all-time highs made last month).
- Geo-Political: German President Koehler stepped down following comments over Germany's deployment in Afghanistan. In an interview with Deutschlandradio Kultur, Koehler said that military intervention is necessary for an export-oriented country like Germany in order to prevent regional instabilities that could have a negative impact on country's economy, trade and income. *** UN has condemned an attack by Israel troops furthering pressure to lift the imposed Gaza blockade. During the weekend, Israeli troops raided a convoy of ships in the Gaza region resulting in ten reported fatalities and many more injured. The flotilla was said to carry medical supplies and construction materials, with an implicit goal of undermining Israeli blockade of Gaza. Israel defended the blockade as preventative to arms smuggling. *** Liberal Democrat Danny Alexander appointed as new Treasury Chief Secretary following the resignation of David Laws due to revelations during the weekend that he claimed personal expenses. The new Treasury Secretary formerly held the position of Secretary of State of Scotland. *** Australia Treasurer Swan saw progress in tax consultations with miners noted that the framework of the resource tax would not be changed. On a related issue, Australian PM Rudd: There will be no mining profits tax deal any time soon, negotiations will extend for weeks if not months. Still committed to 40% super-profits tax*** The weekend election in the CzechRepublic resulted in Democrats narrowly winning. Though left leaning Social Democrats awarded most votes, combined centre-right parties prevented them from taking power. According to the WSJ, the leaders of the three Czech center-right political parties are looking to put together a governing coalition. The three parties received about 48% of the popular vote in the elections, winning a total of 118 seats in the 200-seat lower house of the legislature. The parties of the right broadly agree on priorities for the next government including fiscal reform.
- In The papers: The London Times attributing overnight "tremors" in markets to ECB warning that banks in the Eurozone might still have to write off as much as â‚¬195B in bad loans over the next 18 months
***Notes/Observations: - European Manufacturing PMI data shows waning signs of upward momentum - EU Unemployment Rate at highest level since 1998 - RBA left interest rates unchanged; as expected. Bank of Canada later today with chance of 25bps rate hike - AIG: To maintain original terms regarding AIA transaction ($35B in cash and securities) - China & Russia PMI's slightly weaker than consensus. - China short date repo spikes 50 bps higher on funding fear squeeze. - London Times: ECB warns Euro Zone banks face up to â‚¬195Bb in second wave of potential loan losses. - FT: China housing problems potentially more dangerous than those of US due to combination of bubble and potential social unrest.. - Israel prepares to intercept next Gaza aid ship due Wednesday.
***Looking Ahead*** - 8:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Industrial Production M/M: -1.1%e v 2.8% prior; Y/Y: 16.0%e v 19.7% prior - 8:15 (BE) Belgium Apr Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.1% prior - 9:00 (BR) Brazil May PMI Manufacturing: No est v 53.8 prior - 9:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: Consensus expectations is for a 25bps rate hike to 0.50% (over 90% chance) - 10:00 (BR) Brazil Mat Trade Balance: $2.7Be v $1.3B prior; Exports: $17.3Be v $15.2B prior; Imports: $14.5Be v $13.9B prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Remittances: $1.7Be v $2.0B prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Survey - 10:00 (US) May ISM Manufacturing: 59.0e v 60.4 prior; Prices Paid: 72.0e v 78.0 prior - 10:00 (US) Apr Construction Spending M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior - 10:00 (US) May Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 18.6%e v 21.1% prior - 12:00 (IT) Italy May New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -15.7% prior - 14:00 (IT) Italy May Budget Balance: No est v -â‚¬14.8B prior; Budget Balance YTD: No est v -â‚¬41.9B prior - 11:00 (GE) German Chancellor Merkel at Baltic Sea Summit
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