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Friday May 28, 2004 - 11:38:32 GMT
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GVI FX Strategy Session-- NY Open

This is a major holiday weekend for the forex markets with the U.S., U.K, and virtually the entire Continent closed for holidays on Monday. It is also month end. Nevertheless, forex markets are in flux despite reduced dealer participation. The major developing theme continues to be the tempering of expectations about the extent of future Fed monetary policy tightening. By the close Thursday, Fed Funds futures had cut the odds on a June 30 rate hike to 86%. While in absolute terms this still amounts to a sure bet, these odds have been falling all week. Some are starting to raise the issue of the U.S. twin deficits again. The more important deficit for forex markets is the Current Account gap because the U.S. must perpetually draw in funds from overseas to finance this shortfall and the markets recently had been banking on an aggressive Fed tightening to provide this lure.

The Nikkei advanced on Friday by 143 points aided by Japanese share purchases ahead of the reweighting of the MS global equity portfolio index. Japan also registered a large 9.3% increase in April Household spending and a strong 3.3% increase in April Industrial Output, The Spending figures were much stronger than expected and the Industrial production figures fell a bit shy of forecasts. April Core CPI rose +0.2% y/y. changes in dollar sentiment have been perhaps most pronounced in the yen on the past day or so with market forecasts for a 110-115 trading band for the next three months now being revised lower to 108-113 and to as low as 105-110. Our 110-115 view is likely now moving into the 108-113 camp, depending on upcoming data from the U.S.

A key variable in these forecasts will be the price of oil. At this hour WTI has not changed much from its N.Y. close, but there has been word that OPEC will agree on June 3 in Beirut to remove all limits on production and to raise its target price to about $28 per barrel from $22. Eliminating production limits would only affect the Saudis at the moment and they do not have a lot of excess capacity left, so the change would only be a token gesture.

European Consumer Confidence fell to -16 from -14 in May and the May Eurozone CPI rose to 2.5% from 2.0% on a year on year basis, due to oil. This creates a dilemma for the ECB because its CPI target is just under 2.0%. This leaves no chance for a rate cut, but the bank must also decide of it will nurture the economy or combat inflation. The euro is not a stellar dollar alternative. Swiss 1Q04 GDP grew by +0.4% and was up1.5% y/y. The SNB is likely to abandon its ultra-easy monetary policy in June.

Friday morning has a full U.S. economic calendar with April Personal Income and Personal Consumption expenditures due on the open. Later at 13:45 GMT, the May University of Michigan survey will be closely scrutinized. Then at 14:00 GMT, the May Chicago PMI is due. Many markets will be closing early in the U.S. ahead of the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

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John M. Bland, MBA
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