After building a support base throughout the day while
reacting to the sideways trade in the equity markets, September Treasury Bonds
mounted a strong rally late in the session, indicating that they may be poised
to launch the start of another leg higher.
For the fourth consecutive day, T-Bonds held the June 27th
bottom at 122â€™05, indicating that there was still buying interest in the
contract. At the same time the market attempted to regain an uptrending Gann angle
at 123â€™14. Although the market is currently on the bearside of this angle, it
isnâ€™t going to take much to turn the T-Bonds bullish again if this angle is
recovered. The minimum upside objective is a minor retracement zone at 124â€™04
to 124â€™19. If support can be established in this zone, then look for a retest
of the contract high at 126â€™05.
The T-Bonds are dependent upon the stock market for
direction at this time. If stocks get hit hard then the money flow out of
stocks and into the safety of the Treasuries is likely to launch a strong
rally. What could be slowing down the upside action in the Treasuries is
renewed interest in the U.K. Gilts as a safe-haven alternative to weakness in
the Euro. There was evidence on Tuesday that nervous money was leaving the Euro
and flowing into the British Pound. Any new problems arising in the U.K. regarding
its debt load is likely to drive additional funds into U.S. Treasuries. This
developing bullish scenario is likely to hold as long as support at 122â€™05
equity markets tried to mount a strong comeback rally on Tuesday but fell apart
into the close. Earlier this morning stock indices made a recovery from their
lows, boosted by bottom-picker demand and driven higher by better than expected
manufacturing data. For a while it looked as if U.S. equity markets would trade
higher as traders shifted away from risk aversion and more toward the
potentially bullish outlook for the global economy. This scenario didnâ€™t hold
into the close however as risk fears regarding Europe
and a sell-off in oil drilling stocks were too much for bullish investors to
The weak close put the June E-mini S&P 500 at a minor
50% level at 1071.75. Downside momentum is likely to take this price out
overnight which would set up a further decline to the .618 price level at
1063.50. The new chart pattern is bearish. A swing top has been formed at
1106.75. A break out over this price will turn the main trend to up.
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