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Wednesday June 2, 2010 - 10:00:16 GMT
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European Market Update: Portugal 3-month T-Bill auctions shakes off another wave of risk aversion concerns; Euro getting verbal support (Trade the News)

Wednesday, June 02, 2010 5:56:45 AM

 European Market Update: Portugal 3-month T-Bill auctions shakes off another wave of risk aversion concerns; Euro getting verbal support

 

- (SP) Spain May Net Unemployment M/M: -76.2K v -45.0Ke
- (HU) Hungary Mar Final Trade Balance: €653.3 v €653.1M prior
- (SZ) Swiss Apr Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.3% v 4.0% prior (revised)
- (SW) Sweden Q1 Current Account (SEK): 63.6B v 40.8B prior
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank Interest Rate leaves Benchmark Rate unchanged at 1.25%; As expected
- (SP) Spain May Consumer Confidence: 65.1% v 78.2% prior
- (BR) Brazil May FIPE
CPI: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (UK) Apr Net Consumer Credit: -£0.1B v £0.3Be; Net Lending: £0.5B v £0.6Be
- (UK) Apr Mortgage Approvals: 49.9K v 49.5Ke
- (UK) Apr Final M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3% prior
- (UK) May PMI Construction: 58.5 v 58.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr PPI M/M: 0.9% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.6%e
- (SA) South Africa May Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 28.6%v 26.6% prior

Fixed income:
- (UK) DMO sold £4.25B in conventional tap 2.75% 2015 Gilts auction; avg yield 2.274%; Bid-to-cover: 2.34x v 2.33x prior
- (PO) Portugal sold €560M in 3-month Bills; avg yield 1.861%; Bid-to-cover: 3.5x v 2.4x prior
- (DE) Denmark Sold DKK3.6B in 4.0% coupon 2019 bonds; avg yield 2.67%; bid-to-cover 2.4x
- (SW) Sweden sold SEK3B in 6.75% coupon 2014 Bonds; avg yield 1.8%; Bid-to-cover: 3.4x

*** SPEAKERS/
FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: Following the negative leads from the US and Asia, European equity markets opened the session lower across the board. Today's equity weakness has coincided with the widening in peripheral debt spreads, as Spanish spreads hit fresh record highs. Additionally, BP's credit defaults swaps moved to record highs for the second consecutive session. The declines on today's session are being led by resources stocks, as BP continues to ease. Additionally declines in shares of banks have weighed on indices.

- In Individual Stocks: Nothumbrian Water [NWG.UK]: Reported FY revenue of £704.7M comparing favorably to year-ago figures of £694.1M. Profit before interest was £275.8M slightly above year-ago figures of £273.6M.// Topps Tiles [TPT.UK]: Reported H1 operating profit of £10.3M below year-ago number of £10.9M. Revenues were £91.4M above year-ago revenue of £87.6M. Also reported that its like-for-like revenues increased 2%. Company noted uncertainty uncertainty over the economic environment and weak consumer confidence and expected trading in the retail sector to remain challenging. Lukoil [LKOH.RU]: Reported Q1 Net $2.05B comparing favorably to year-ago figure of $905M. Revenues were also higher than year ago figures at $23.9B vs $14.7B. Compamy noted the particular economic uncertainty present in the Russian Federation.// Prudential [PRU.UK]: Confirmed it ended talks with
AIG over AIA. Estimated costs incurred are £450M which include break-up fee, arrangement and underwriting fees. During the session London Telegraph mentioned that currency hedges by Prudential could help cover costs as pound fell against the dollar.

- Speakers: German Cabinet approved a bill to extend ban on naked short-selling and the ban included ALL stocks. The ban on currency derivatives only optional. German Fin Min Schaeuble commented that high deficits were main cause of financial crisis and stated that new rules were urgently needed***UAE Oil Minister Hamli commented that current oil prices were 'reasonable' and that there was no shortage of oil in the market. He cautioned that the Sovereign debt crisis would affect outlook on oil prices. ***EU's Barroso reiterated that the euro was a strong and credible currency ***Poland Central Bank's Glapinski reiterated view that the rate panel might need to raise interest rates by 50bps by end of 2010 or early next year ***France Fin Min Lagarde commented that the EU needed to accelerate new credit default swap (CDS) rules. She stressed that the sovereign debt issue would not just concern
Europe and the topic would be discussed at the Korean G20 meeting later this week. She noted that budget consolidation was imperative but stressed that it was important not to curb economic growth and momentum. *** Japan Finance Min Kan confirmed intension to run for the DPJ Presidency ***Brazil Fin Min Mantega commented that Brazil had been the 'biggest victim' of the weak USD trend. The official added that a revaluation of Chinese yuan currency could assist in global currency stability *** Central banks in Brazil, India, Russia Japan and South Korea commented in separate interviews ahead of the G20 summit that they would NOT stop investing in euros, as there are few alternatives to both the Euro and USD dollar ***

-Currencies/Fixed income: The session was once again plagued by the potential contagion of the sovereign debt issue as the peripheral spread drifted higher as equity prices waned. Rumors circulating that
Portugal had delayed a vote on its austerity measures. The spread between the 10-year Spain/German Gov't Bonds at post Euro launch highs of over 170bps in sympathy of the rumor. The Hungary Central Bank raised the radar on the Central European effect after it commented that the country was set to miss its 2010 budget deficit goal of 3.8% without measures and added that the deficit could hit 4.5% this year. French Fin Min commented that sovereign debt issue would not just concern Europe and the topic would be discussed at the Korean G20 meeting later this week. The EUR/USD maintained a foothold above the 1.22 handle for the bulk of the morning with dealers noting of 'solid bids' on the approach of 1.2150. The Euro received some verbal support as central banks in Brazil, India, Russia Japan and South Korea commented that they would not stop investing in euros (nor dollars), as there are few alternatives to those currencies. There was dealer chatter of DNT option barrier between 1.21 to 1.25 circulating but no mention of the expiration. The EUR/USD heading into the NY morning just off its best level of 1.2270 following a solid Portugal 3-month T-Bill auction. The JPY was initial mixed against the major pairs as the positioning for the next Japanese PM took form following Hatoyama's resignation earlier today. USD/JPY just off its best level and holding above 91.90 as the NY morning approached.

- Geo-Political: Australian Treasurer Swan commented that the mining tax may be informally discussed at G20 meeting with any pre-election tax deal dependant on mining companies. He claims that according to miners, the tax raises sovereign risk are nonsense. He also denies that
China's visit this week is an attempt to talk down the impact of the mining tax. Australia Resources Minister said he was confident the government can reach an agreement with the mining industry on the mining tax, and that the 40% headline tax rate is not negotiable.

***Notes/Observations:
- Portugal Bill auction calms early phase of risk aversion in session
- Japan PM Hatoyam resigns; Fin Min Kan front runner ro replace him
- ECB's Noyer reiterates view that Euro is by no means unusually low
- Various Central banks in Brazil, India, Russia Japan and South Korea commented in separate interviews ahead of the G20 summit that they would NOT stop investing in euros (nor dollars)
- Slower growth concerns weigh on equities in Europe; Commodities lower led by drop in industrial metals following signs of manufacturing slowdowns

***Looking Ahead***
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 28th: No est v 11.3% prior
- 7:30 (US) May Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: No est v 38.3K prior; No est v -71.1% prior
- 7:45 (US) ICSC Weekly Chain Store Sales
- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail sales
- 9:00 (BR) Brazil Apr CNI Capacity Utilization: 82.45e v 82.6% prior
- 9:30 (SI) Singapore may Purchasing Managers Index: 51.3e v 51.9 prior: Electronic Sector: 51.3e v 51.8 prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr Pending Home Sales M/M: 5.0%e v 5.3% prior; Y/Y: 21.0%e v 23.5% prior
- 11:30 EU's Monetary & Affairs Commissioner Rehn in Germany

 

 

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