Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (2 June 2010)
The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2175
level and was capped around the $1.2275 level. North American dealers lifted the common
currency from its intraday lows.European Commission President Barroso called for the establishment of an
independent European credit ratings agency.Iran‚Äôs central bank today reported it is selling ‚ā¨45 billion in reserves
for U.S. dollars.Three-month U.S.
Dollar Libor loans rose to 0.5375% today from 0.53625% yesterday.Its recent high was 0.53844% - reached on 27
May ‚Äď and this was the highest level since 6 July 2009.Libor has more than doubled in 2010 on
account of the deteriorating credit outlook for banks and the European
sovereign debt crisis.European Central
Bank member Noyer reported the current EUR/USD rate is ‚Äúby no means unusually
low.‚ÄĚ Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero said he will approve a labour market rule
change on 16 June and also noted financial markets are having a ‚Äúserious difficulty.‚ÄĚ
Greece reported it is establishing a holding company to help sell its state
assets and finance minister Papaconstantinou reported Greece will accelerate
privatizations.Data released in the
eurozone today saw EMU-16 producer price inflation up 0.9% m/m and 2.8%
y/y.In U.S. news, data released today saw MBA mortgage applications
decelerate to +0.9% while May Challenger job cuts were off 65.1% y/y.Also, April pending home sales were up 6.0%
m/m and 24.6% y/y.Philadelphia Fed
President Plosser said Fed policy will be impacted by the European Union
financial crisis.Euro offers are
cited around the US$ 1.2620 level.
The yen depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ¬•92.20 level and was supported around
the ¬•90.90 level.The major news in
Japan overnight was the resignation of Prime Minister Hatoyama over his
handling of the U.S. military base relocation on Okinawa.A successor has not yet been named but one
possibility receiving a lot of attention is finance minister Kan.The market impact will probably be limited
over the long-term as Japan does not have much room to issue more debt.If Kan becomes the new Prime Minister, it is
possible that Vice finance minister Noda will become the new financial
minister.Lower-house elections are
forthcoming and the Democratic Party of Japan has a tenuous grip on power.Bank of Japan sources indicated the central
bank may lend at least ¬•1 trillion to commercial banks under its new loan
program, details of which were announced in May.Japan continues to suffer from moderate
deflation that monetary policy and fiscal policy have been unable to resolve.Data released in Japan overnight saw the May
monetary base up 3.7% y/y and data to be released tonight include Q1 capital
spending.The Nikkei 225 stock index
lost 1.12% to close at ¬•9,603.24.U.S.
dollar offers are cited around the ¬•96.85 level.The
euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ¬•112.70 level and was supported around the ¬•111.00 figure.The
British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested offers
around the ¬•135.40 level while the Swiss
franc moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¬•79.70
level. In Chinese news, the U.S.
dollar depreciated vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY
6.8298 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8306. Former People‚Äôs Bank of China adviser Fan Gang
reported China needs to implement local government debt quotas.Many dealers believe China faces a massive
property bubble and needs to rein in further housing speculation. PBoC adviser
Li today estimated China‚Äôs mainland inflation may reach 3.7% this year, noting
China is ‚Äúlightly overheating.‚ÄĚPBoC
Governor Zhou reported China has ‚Äúpromptly‚ÄĚ curbed its economic downturn.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.4550 level and was capped around the $1.4770 level. Bank of England Governor King said the system
must seize the opportunity for reform and banks should not be permitted to be ‚Äútoo
big to fail.‚ÄĚKing reiterated support
for the BoE‚Äôs policy framework, reporting ‚ÄúDespite its volatility, inflation
remains low by historic standards, and on track to meet the target in the
medium term. The framework has proved resilient to the stress of the financial
crisis.It guided our monetary decisions
going out into the crisis, and it will guide them coming out of it.‚ÄĚData released in the U.K. today saw April net
consumer credit decline to -¬£100 million from the revised prior reading of +¬£100
million while April net lending secured on dwellings printed at ¬£500 million,
up from the prior reading of ¬£200 million.April mortgage approvals grew marginally to 49,000 and the M4 money
supply was up 0.0% m/m and 3.3% y/y.Finally, May PMI construction improved to 58.5.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.4220
level.The euro appreciated vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested offers around the ¬£0.8375 level and was supported around the ¬£0.8280
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.1600 figure and was supported around the CHF 1.1525 level. Data released in Switzerland today saw April
retail sales up 1.3% y/y, down from a revised 4.0% in March.Swiss National Bank member Leuthard on Friday
reported the SNB is interested in a ‚Äústable
euro,‚ÄĚ adding the central bank‚Äôs euro reserves have risen to 52%.SNB has undertaken significant franc-selling
intervention this year to address the depreciation of the common currency.U.S. dollar bids are cited around the US$ 1.1420
level.The euro lost ground vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested bids around the CHF 1.4120 level while the British pound lost ground vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids
around the CHF 1.6860 level.
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