20:00 GMT- June 2 (global-view.com) It appears that FinMin Kan will become the next PM of Japan on Friday. Kan has been a strong advocate of combating deflation and as favored a weaker JPY. PM Hatoyama resigned his post on political funding issues after serving only eight months in office. The JPY is weaker vs. the EUR and USD on the news. In any case, Japan traditionally has been run by a strong bureaucracy. No major policy changes should be expected from the new leadership, although the government will keep pressure on the central bank to continue quantitative ease. Markets are still generally trying to get their bearings amid much instability recently in global equity markets recently. JPY selling against buying the EUR appeared to dominate activity. Its all in the crosses
This is an important week for the U.S. with the May employment report due on Friday. Thursday will see the ADP monthly private employment estimate A significant improvement in job growth has already been priced in due to a better economy and large increase in temporary census hiring.
The EURUSD is steady on the day and the GBPUSD is unchanged. The EURGBP is even. Traders have been keeping a close eye on European sovereign debt situation and on the threat of forex intervention in the EUR.
In the GBP, the U.K. new government is weak. A second election may not be far away. Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains negative.
The EURCHF is easier. SNB intervention tactics have changed, as recently the SNB has taken a strong stand. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB. The SNB has set a EURCHF floor of 1.4000.
The USDJPY pair is up sharply and the EURJPY cross is higher. The change in government in Japan is not expected to have a lasting impact. Japanese public finances are a worry. however JGB bonds are mostly owned by Japanese. The government wants a lower exchange rate and has warned the markets about the JPY. It also has been pressing the BOJ to promote growth.
Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
The risk trade has been on and off in commodities and commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD). The commodity currencies are now higher. RBA monetary policy is steady. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 25bps but sent dovish signals. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as as refuge from paper money. We had been favoring AUD, CAD, gold and oil fundamentally, but some doubts are creeping in.
Far East equities closed mostly lower. European bourses are down. U.S. equities are better. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.34%, +8 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Far East markets will see Australian trade data Thursday. In Europe , Service PMI data are due from the EZ and U.K. EZ retail sales data are due. In North America , U.S. ADP jobs data, 1Q10 productivity, weekly jobless claims, Service PMI and Factory orders are due. Also the weekly crude and national gas inventories will be released.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
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